Fortune | FORTUNE 10月07日 00:08
美国蛋白质需求旺盛,肉类进口面临挑战
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美国正面临历史性的牛肉价格高位,这源于国内蛋白质需求的持续增长,特别是受蛋白质饮食潮流和GLP-1类药物(如Ozempic)的潜在影响。尽管美国是全球最大的牛肉生产国,但由于国内牛存栏量降至历史低点,生产能力已无法满足强劲的需求。这导致美国不得不增加从巴西等国的进口,即便面临关税调整。JBS作为美国主要的肉类生产商,其美国业务也受到影响,但公司自身在国内的生产能力使其在一定程度上规避了部分风险。整体而言,蛋白质消费的趋势和供应端的挑战正共同推高美国肉类价格,并促使进口量增加。

🥩 **蛋白质需求激增与消费趋势转变**:文章指出,蛋白质已成为一种健康饮食的流行趋势,并且这种趋势在2024年得到显著增长,近六成消费者表示增加了蛋白质摄入。这种需求增长不仅体现在日常食品中,甚至渗透到咖啡饮品等领域。此外,GLP-1类药物(如Ozempic和Mounjaro)的普及也被认为是助推蛋白质消费热潮的一个可能因素,改变了过去医生建议限制高蛋白食物的观念。

🐄 **美国国内牛存栏量创历史新低**:尽管美国是全球领先的牛肉生产国,但数据显示,截至2024年7月,美国牛存栏量仅为约2870万头,是自1973年有记录以来的最低水平。牛存栏量的锐减直接导致了国内牛肉生产能力的下降,无法满足美国国内对蛋白质日益增长的需求,这是导致牛肉价格上涨和需要大量进口的关键原因。

📈 **进口激增与关税影响**:为弥补国内供应缺口,美国不得不增加从国外进口牛肉,特别是从巴西。尽管美国曾对巴西牛肉施加了如“解放日”关税和高达50%的关税,但进口量在2024年上半年仍大幅增长。虽然高额关税导致巴西牛肉进口在8月后有所下降,但其他国家如澳大利亚(税率较低)有望从中获益。总体而言,预计2024年下半年美国牛肉进口总量将比去年增加16%。

🏭 **JBS的应对与市场地位**:作为全球最大的肉类加工公司之一,JBS的联合创始人Wesley Batista认为,美国需要更多进口来满足需求。JBS作为美国最大的牛肉生产商,其在美国本土的生产能力使其在一定程度上能够抵御进口关税的影响。公司在美国的业务占其全球销售额的近三分之一,并于2024年6月在美国纽约证券交易所上市,显示了其在美国市场的深耕和重要性。

One of the billionaire brothers behind the biggest meat-processing company in the world is worried about satisfying America’s insatiable craving for protein.

Wesley Batista, who, with his brother Joesley Batista, controls the $15 billion Brazilian meat-packing behemoth JBS, said the U.S. needs to import more product from abroad to meet demand.

“The U.S. is facing the highest beef price in history and so the U.S. needs to import more and more because production is not there to support the demand,” Batista said in remarks reported by the Financial Times

Protein-heavy diets have become so popular that the macronutrient is showing up  in everything from packaged food to Starbucks lattes. A study by JBS competitor Cargill also found 60% of consumers said they increased their protein in 2024, up from under half who said the same in 2019.

Batista believes the influx of GLP-1 drugs could also be fueling the protein craze.

“No one knows exactly what is the impact of these new drugs, Ozempic or Mounjaro . . . but something is happening because protein overall became [a trend],” Batista said, according to the FT. “In the past . . . the doctor said you should not eat too [many] eggs, you should not eat too much protein. Now it’s the other way around.”

Cattle numbers in the U.S. are at their lowest since data started being record in the ’70s, according to the USDA.

RJ Sangosti—MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images

The cattle conundrum

Despite being the world’s No. 1 beef producer, the U.S. has had to turn to runner-up producer Brazil for a lifeline this year as cattle sizes thinned out. Even the 10% “Liberation Day” tariff imposed by the Trump administration in April didn’t stop the flow of Brazilian beef. Imports were up 91% in the first half of the year.

To be sure, imports of beef from Brazil started to fall in August after President Donald Trump increased tariffs on the country to a total of 50%, in part because of political disputes. But other countries such as Australia, with only a 10% tariff stand to gain. The USDA said beef imports overall for the second half of the year were predicted to increase as well, bringing the total volume of beef imported up 16% higher than the previous year.

Batista, who was previously CEO of JBS and now sits on the board, added JBS was not hit hard from the tariffs because it produces most of its meat for the U.S. market domestically. JBS is the top producer of beef in the U.S. and its shares started trading on the New York Stock Exchange in June. JBS’ American business made up just under a third of its global sales as of its third fiscal quarter ended in August. 

JBS did not immediately respond to Fortune‘s request for comment.

Meanwhile, the price of a pound of ground beef has jumped 13% to a record high of $6.32 in U.S. cities as of the latest available date in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Plummeting cattle supply has not helped. The U.S. had an estimated 28.7 million head of beef cattle as of July, the lowest since data started being collected in 1973.

“Of course products are still getting more expensive in some markets, but demand is still very strong, especially in the US,” added Batista.

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蛋白质需求 美国肉类市场 牛肉价格 JBS 进口 GLP-1药物 Cattle Numbers Protein Demand US Meat Market Beef Prices Imports GLP-1 Drugs
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