New Yorker 10月06日 22:30
纽约市七十年代住房危机及其现代启示
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本文探讨了纽约市七十年代大规模纵火事件背后的深层原因,包括制造业就业岗位流失、运营成本上涨与租金控制之间的矛盾,以及老旧住房的资本投资需求。作者指出,这些因素导致许多房东无力负担维修而选择放弃物业。文章进一步将其与当前经济形势下的AI相关就业岗位威胁、房地产政策的潜在影响以及不断增长的住房维护成本进行类比,呼吁借鉴历史经验,通过租金调控、低息贷款、税收减免和租金补贴等措施,避免重蹈覆辙,确保住房市场的稳定,尤其关注老旧住房的维护和可负担性。

🏢 历史背景:七十年代纽约市,特别是南布朗克斯地区,经历了严重的住房危机,大量公寓因废弃或拆除而消失,其中许多被纵火焚毁。这与当时制造业就业岗位大量外迁、城市经济衰退以及住房运营成本急剧上升密切相关。

💸 经济动因:文章指出,房东放弃物业并非因其价值下跌,而是因为运营成本(如维修、地税等)的增长远超租金收入,尤其是在通货膨胀和租金管制双重压力下。许多小型房东因无力承担老旧建筑(如屋顶、电梯、管道等)的资本性改进而被迫退出市场。

🔄 现代警示:作者将历史经验与当下关联,警示AI技术可能带来的大规模失业(尤其在金融服务业),以及《2019年住房稳定与租户保护法》等政策可能重现的房东支出与租金收入失衡的局面。这可能导致抵押贷款违约上升,重演七十年代的住房困境。

💡 政策建议:为避免重蹈覆辙,文章强调租金控制政策需与实际运营成本挂钩,或辅以低息贷款、房产税减免和租金补贴等措施,以弥补房东因维护老旧住房而增加的开支。确保可负担住房和劳动者住房的持续可用性至关重要。

Playing With Fire

As an affordable-housing developer, I found Daniel Immerwahr’s article about the wave of arson that ravaged the Bronx in the nineteen-seventies fascinating (Books, August 25th). In 1983, a report estimated that, since 1970, New York City had lost approximately three hundred and ten thousand apartments to abandonment or demolition—many were burned. Immerwahr alludes to several of the systemic issues behind the destruction, but they warrant greater attention.

First, jobs that residents of the South Bronx held left the city. In 1950, New York had a million manufacturing jobs. Over the next three decades, these moved to New Jersey, to Pennsylvania, and, eventually, to cheaper labor markets in the South. Between 1969 and 1977, the city lost six hundred thousand jobs. Meanwhile, the disparity between rents and the cost of operating buildings grew. From 1964 to 1968, as inflation more than doubled, the rise in operating expenses for apartment buildings outpaced the increase allowed under rent control by a factor of three.

By 1970, much of the housing stock was fifty years old and in need of substantial capital investments: new roofs, elevators, plumbing, and electrical wiring. Many small landlords simply couldn’t afford these improvements. They did not abandon their buildings because they lost value—they abandoned them because they were losing money. Some of these landlords had put their life savings into their buildings.

The same dynamics are reëmerging here today. A.I.-related job losses are coming, with the more than five hundred thousand positions in the financial-services sector among the most vulnerable. New York’s 2019 Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act is re-creating the conditions under which landlords’ expenses outpace their rental income. Mortgage defaults are rising. If there is to be rent control, it has to serve those who really need it, and either match the true cost of operating buildings or be paired with low-cost mortgages, real-estate-tax abatements, and rental subsidies to compensate for rising expenses.

As our affordable- and workforce-housing stock continues to age, landlords once again do not have the funds to make necessary capital improvements. The seventies were a terrible time for tenants and landlords in New York City. Let’s use the lessons from those years to make sure that it doesn’t happen again.

Jonathan F. P. Rose
New York City

In the early seventies, I was a teen-ager living in the Bronx. My family lived on Park Avenue, between 179th and 180th Street, on the top floor of one of those “brick and concrete” walkups that Immerwahr mentions. My brothers and I would lean out one of the windows to watch other apartments burn. I marvel at our lack of empathy and at the fact that I wasn’t particularly afraid that our building would be set ablaze.

As I recall, the conventional wisdom at the time was that landlords were paying people to burn their buildings, not that the fires were statements or acts of rebellion on the part of our neighbors. I internalized a distrust of landlords. When ours would visit, which he did rarely, I followed the example of my parents and neighbors and said nothing to him. Our building did eventually burn, but by then my family had joined the white flight and relocated a mile north, to 196th Street. If we hadn’t moved, my parents’ collection of hundreds of New Yorker magazines would have been reduced to ash; surely, we wouldn’t have grabbed them as we scrambled down the fire escape.

Maureen Camp Nichols
Charlottesville, Va.

Letters should be sent with the writer’s name, address, and daytime phone number via e-mail to themail@newyorker.com. Letters may be edited for length and clarity, and may be published in any medium. We regret that owing to the volume of correspondence we cannot reply to every letter.

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纽约住房危机 纵火事件 城市衰退 租金控制 住房政策 历史教训 AI就业 NYC housing crisis Arson Urban decay Rent control Housing policy Historical lessons AI employment
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