💡 **全球性危机根源分析**：文章指出，当前世界正经历一场百年一遇的“超级风暴”，其核心驱动力是技术和金融的飞速发展，并被气候变化、人口结构变动以及一系列社会经济和地缘政治冲击所放大。这导致了西方民主国家面临严峻挑战。

📉 **新自由主义的失败与历史类比**：节目深入剖析了新自由主义作为一种失败的意识形态，认为当前的许多危机源于此。文章将当今的社会政治和经济动态与1930年代的历史时期进行了比较，强调了技术进步带来的社会颠覆、劳动价值的下降、资产价格的过度膨胀、反复出现的金融动荡、流行病、气候压力、人口迁移以及公众对制度、集体认同和解决问题能力的信心严重丧失等共同特征。

⚖️ **政策与投资的未来展望**：在政策层面，节目探讨了改革的必要性，包括了像全民基本收入（UBI）这样的再分配方案，以及解决美国医疗保健系统和教育模式等问题的更强硬措施。同时，也对潜在的社会组织模式进行了权衡，如威权封建主义和技术共产主义，以及如何在高度技术化的社会中更好地平衡极端结果。最后，节目还展望了数字货币和去中心化金融对货币和银行业的颠覆性影响，并对不同经济情景下的资产表现进行了预测。

In Episode 443 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with former investment banker turned global strategist Viktor Shvets, whose books The Great Rupture and The Twilight Before the Storm provide an audaciously comprehensive and compelling framework for understanding the forces shaping our world. These include technology and finance, amplified by climate change, demographics, and a series of socioeconomic and geopolitical shocks that have created the once-in-a-century superstorm now enveloping Western democracies.

Viktor and Demetri spend the first hour of this episode exploring Shvets’ central critique of neoliberalism and why he believes that much of the current crisis stems from this failed ideology. They compare today’s sociopolitical and economic dynamics to those that overtook the world in the 1930s, focusing on technology-driven social disruption, a decline in the marginal utility of labor, runaway asset prices, repeated financial shocks, pandemics, climate stress, migration, and a deep loss of faith in institutions, in our collective identity, and in our shared capacity to solve problems.

The second hour turns to questions of policy design, institutional reform, and portfolio strategy. Viktor and Demetri debate the pros and cons of redistributive solutions such as universal basic income and more heavy-handed fixes to America’s broken healthcare system and antiquated educational model. They also stress-test alternative modes of sociopolitical organization such as despotic feudalism, techno-communism, or models that attempt to better balance the more extreme outcomes that a highly technologized society like ours would produce.

The two end the episode with a conversation about digital currencies and the disruptive potential that decentralized finance will have on money and banking. Kofinas also asks Shvets what assets he believes will outperform if governments are able to institute the types of reforms that he believes are necessary, and similarly, what assets investors will want to own if we trend toward some of the darker scenarios that he envisions. 

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Episode Recorded on 09/29/2025