Fortune | FORTUNE 10月05日
AI对蓝领就业的影响尚不明朗
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尽管人工智能(AI)已对入门级白领就业产生冲击,但蓝领工人仍在探寻AI将如何重塑关键经济领域。福特CEO吉姆·法利表示,目前判断AI对制造业、技术工人和基础设施等领域的蓝领工人是利是弊尚为时过早。他指出,AI数据中心和输电线路建设的投资将为基础经济带来“顺风”,因为这些建设需要建筑工人、水管工、电工等蓝领工人的支持。然而,他也担忧新技术在提高蓝领工人生产力方面的历史记录不佳,并以自动化为例,认为其反而减少了就业岗位。法利提到,蓝领工人的生产力在过去20年有所下降,而白领工人的生产力则在上升。尽管数据中心建设可能带动蓝领就业,但他同时强调,目前存在约100万的劳动力缺口,无法满足AI数据中心建设和工厂运营的需求。

🤖 AI对蓝领就业的影响存在不确定性:尽管AI已影响白领工作,但其对制造业、技术工人和基础设施等领域的蓝领工人是助力还是阻碍,目前尚难定论。福特CEO法利表示,希望AI能有所帮助,但现在还难以断定。

🏗️ AI投资可能为蓝领带来机遇:AI数据中心和输电线路的建设将创造对建筑工人、水管工、电工等蓝领工人的需求。ALFA研究所的报告指出,1000亿美元的AI数据中心投资可能在美国创造多达50万个就业岗位。

📉 历史经验与生产力挑战:过去,新技术应用在提高蓝领工人生产力方面的成效不佳,自动化甚至导致了就业岗位的减少。数据显示,蓝领工人的生产力在过去20年有所下降,而白领的生产力则有所上升。AI在蓝领工作中的应用节省的时间比例远低于白领。

⚠️ 劳动力短缺与技术发展矛盾:尽管有大量AI数据中心和新技术的部署,但建设和运营这些设施所需的熟练工人(如电工、建筑工人)却存在约100万的巨大缺口,这构成了技术发展与劳动力供给之间的矛盾。

AI has disrupted entry-level white-collar employment, but blue-collar workers are still looking for clues on how the tech will shape the essential economy going forward. 

Ford CEO Jim Farley said it’s too early to know just how AI may help or hurt essential workers—those working in sectors like manufacturing, skilled trades, and infrastructure.

“I hope that it will be a help, but it’s hard to say that today,” he said on Bloomberg TV’s Wall Street Week on Friday. 

AI investments in data center construction and transmission lines will bring “tailwinds” for the essential economy since the buildout will require support from construction workers, plumbers, electricians, and other blue-collar workers, Farley said. 

A recent report from the ALFA Institute found that $100 billion in AI data center investment could create up to half a million jobs in the U.S. over five years, spanning construction, manufacturing, transportation, and real estate.

But on the other hand, Farley said there isn’t a good track record of applying new technologies to make blue-collar workers more productive and pointed to automation as an example.

“Those innovations really took jobs out of the job market and out and out of the essential economy,” he said. 

In fact, productivity in the essential economy has gone down over the past 20 years, while white-collar productivity has gone up, according to Farley.

A St. Louis Fed study found that about 4% of blue-collar workers’ hours in a week were spent using AI, which saved them 1% of their work. But for computer and math workers, 11.7% of their hours were spent using AI, saving them 2.5% of their work. For management, 9.7% of their hours worked using AI saved them 2.2%.

And even as data centers may provide a boost in blue-collar work, Farley has previously said there’s a death of workers able to construct AI data centers and operate factories. On Friday, he told Bloomberg that gap is about 1 million workers.

“The irony of the irony is, we have all these data centers, all this new technology to roll out, and still requires electricians, construction workers… and we have this huge shortage,” he said.

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AI 蓝领就业 自动化 经济 劳动力市场 AI Blue-collar jobs Automation Economy Labor market
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