Fortune | FORTUNE 10月05日
欧洲机场现无人机,丹麦警惕俄罗斯“混合战争”
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欧洲多地机场出现无人机,引发对俄罗斯“混合战争”威胁的担忧。继丹麦报告其机场和军事基地上空出现无人机后,德国慕尼黑机场和比利时一处军事基地也报告了类似情况。丹麦首相表示,这是俄罗斯试图威胁、分裂和破坏欧洲的“混合战争”的一部分,并强调需要强有力的回应。尽管丹麦未直接指认俄罗斯,但此事件发生在俄乌冲突持续、欧洲支持乌克兰以及考虑使用被冻结俄罗斯资产的背景下。欧洲官员警告,俄罗斯可能通过网络攻击、GPS干扰、甚至纵火等多种方式进行混合威胁。丹麦情报部门评估,若美国不介入,俄罗斯可能在未来几年内对欧洲发动更大规模的攻击。

✈️ 欧洲多地机场及军事设施近期出现不明无人机活动,引发对“混合战争”的担忧。继丹麦报告后,德国慕尼黑机场和比利时一处军事基地也出现类似情况,凸显了地区安全面临的复杂挑战。

🇩🇰 丹麦首相明确指出,这些事件是俄罗斯试图威胁、分裂和破坏欧洲的“混合战争”策略的一部分,强调欧洲需要采取强有力的应对措施来回应这种新型威胁。

🇷🇺 尽管丹麦未直接将无人机事件归咎于俄罗斯,但这些活动发生在俄乌冲突持续、欧洲对乌克兰提供支持以及讨论如何利用被冻结的俄罗斯资产的背景下,加剧了地区紧张局势。

🌐 欧洲官员普遍警告,除了无人机,俄罗斯还可能利用网络攻击、GPS信号干扰、海底电缆破坏甚至纵火等多种手段进行混合威胁,对欧洲国家的稳定构成持续风险。

🛡️ 丹麦情报部门的评估显示,若美国不介入,俄罗斯可能在未来几年内对欧洲国家发动区域性或大规模战争,尤其是在其认为北约军事实力减弱或政治分裂的情况下,这促使欧洲国家加速加强自身军事能力。

Denmark, a founding member of NATO, has added to growing alarms about the threat of “hybrid war” from Russia as drone sightings spread to more European airports and even military installations.

On Thursday, the airport in Munich, Germany, grounded flights after several drone sightings. And on Friday, Belgium said it was investigating drone sightings above a military base near the German border. That’s after Denmark also reported drones flying above its airports and largest military base.

“I hope that everybody recognizes now that there is a hybrid war, and one day it’s Poland, the other day it’s Denmark and next week, it will probably be somewhere else,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told reporters on Wednesday. “There is only one country…willing to threaten us, and it is Russia, and therefore, we need a very strong answer back.”

Denmark hasn’t directly attributed the recent drone incidents to Russia. But the remarks follow Russian drone incursions into Poland as well as Russian fighter jets violating Estonian airspace, forcing NATO to intercept them.

Russia’s ambassador to Denmark denied Moscow was involved in the drone flights, calling them “a staged provocation” designed to spark a military confrontation. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin joked about the situation when asked about sending drones over Europe: “I’ll stop, I won’t send any more drones to France, Denmark, Copenhagen. Where else have they been flying?”

The growing alarms over hybrid warfare—operations in a grey area that stop short of a full-fledged military attack—come as Europe continues supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion and is considering ways to use frozen Russian assets.

European officials have also been warning about other hybrid threats and suspect Moscow was behind a string of incidents, including the sabotage of an undersea cable, cyberattacks, GPS jamming of civil aviation, and even acts of arson.

In July, the European Union’s top diplomat condemned what she called “Russia’s persistent hybrid campaigns” against EU countries. In an interview with the Financial Times, Denmark’s Frederiksen said Tuesday that Russia’s hybrid war is “only the beginning,” adding that it’s meant “to threaten us, to divide us, to destabilize us. To use drones one day, cyber attacks the next day, sabotage on the third day.”

Washington is also taking a harder line as President Donald Trump has lost patience with Moscow after his meeting with Putin in Alaska failed to yield any progress toward a ceasefire. The U.S. will now provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, sources told the Wall Street Journal.

In addition to arming Ukraine, Europe is racing to reinvigorate its own military capabilities amid the looming Russia threat and prodding from Trump that NATO spend more on defense.

On Wednesday, Frederiksen said Europe is in “the most difficult and dangerous situation since the end of the Second World War.”

Early this year, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service assessed the risk from Russia once its Ukraine war stops or freezes in place.

Russia could launch a local war against a bordering country within six months, a regional war in the Baltics within two years, and a large-scale attack on Europe within five years if the U.S. does not get involved, according to a translation of the report from Politico.

“Russia is likely to be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided,” according to the assessment, which was dated Feb. 9. “This is particularly true if Russia assesses that the U.S. cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a war with Russia.”

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混合战争 俄罗斯 欧洲安全 无人机 丹麦 北约 Hybrid Warfare Russia European Security Drones Denmark NATO
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