Fortune | FORTUNE 10月04日 23:00
日本首位女首相呼之欲出:强硬保守派高市早苗
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日本自民党选择了前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗作为新领导人,这位坚定的民族主义者以铁娘子撒切尔夫人和重金属乐队“铁娘子”为灵感。她的崛起可能标志着日本政治的右转,旨在吸引年轻选民。作为日本首位女性执政党领袖,高市早苗的政治生涯打破了性别壁垒,但她的保守立场与进步女权主义相去甚远。她的执政能否成功,将取决于她团结党内、赢得公众支持以及与年轻选民建立联系的能力,同时还需要与反对党合作。她对经济增长的重视以及对央行刺激的偏好,可能对投资者产生影响,市场预期她可能倾向于扩张性财政政策,并对日元、股市和长期债券收益率带来波动。

🌟 **保守派的崛起与女性领导力**:高市早苗作为日本自民党新任领导人,有望成为日本首位女性首相。她是一位坚定的民族主义者,深受“铁娘子”撒切尔夫人的影响,其政治立场偏向保守。她的出现打破了日本政坛的性别天花板,但其保守观念也与进步女权主义理念存在差距,其执政风格将对日本社会性别平等议题产生深远影响。

💰 **经济政策与市场影响**:高市早苗倾向于通过政府支出实现经济增长,并支持央行刺激措施。尽管她已在中期竞选中调整了对日本央行加息的批评性言论,但其扩张性财政政策的倾向,例如可能通过发行债券来支持经济,预示着她可能优先考虑经济增长而非财政健康。这可能导致日元贬值、股市上涨以及长期债券收益率上升。

🤝 **外交关系与对华立场**:高市早苗在对华关系和对美贸易问题上持强硬立场,这可能与美国特朗普政府的观点较为契合。她曾就参拜靖国神社问题发表过不回避的言论,尽管选后有所软化,但其在历史问题和国家安全议题上的立场,将是观察其外交政策的重要维度,特别是当前中日关系紧张的背景下。

🎶 **个人特质与政治风格**:高市早苗以其勤奋、注重细节的政治风格著称,她甚至表示要放弃“工作与生活的平衡”,全身心投入工作。她对重金属音乐的热爱和其强硬的政治形象,使她成为“老派”政治观点的代表。她能否团结党内、赢得年轻选民支持并应对执政挑战,将是其政治生涯的关键。

📈 **吸引年轻选民与右翼选票**:自民党选择高市早苗,意在通过回归右翼政策来吸引在选举中倾向于小型民粹主义政党的年轻选民。她对外国游客的不满以及“日本优先”的隐含信息,可能触及部分公众的担忧,从而巩固其在右翼选民中的地位。她在民意调查中始终保持领先,显示出其在保守派中的强大吸引力。

Sanae Takaichi, the pro-stimulus conservative poised to become Japan’s first female prime minister, is an energetic nationalist with a soft spot for the hard-nosed politics of Iron Lady Margaret Thatcher and the heavy metal music of Iron Maiden.

In choosing the former economic security minister as its leader, the Liberal Democratic Party is essentially betting on a swing back to the right to attract the younger voters who have flocked to smaller populist outfits, including the arch-conservative Sanseito party. 

It’s a move that could backfire if the party is seen simply reverting to the easy money and hawkish diplomacy of her mentor, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, without any new ideas.

Takaichi is expected to become premier later this month in a parliamentary vote. In becoming the LDP’s chief, Takaichi has already smashed a glass ceiling in a nation that has only seen male ruling party leaders. 

Her ascent to the top of the political world will send ripples through the male-dominated society that languishes near the bottom end of global gender equality rankings. But like Thatcher, the former UK prime minister whom she cites as an inspiration, her conservative views place her a long way from the stance of progressive feminism.

Her ability to build a lasting legacy as the nation’s leader will depend less on her ability to further the position of women than on her capacity to restore the fortunes of a ruling party in disarray after decades of dominance in postwar Japan. 

“From a normal woman’s perspective, she’s what you might call an idol for ‘old men,’” said Mieko Nakabayashi, politics professor at Waseda University. “She’s someone who expresses ‘old man’ opinions from a woman’s mouth and makes them happy.”

Her longevity at the head of a fickle political machine known for quickly axing its presidents will depend on how swiftly she can unite the party, win back public support and connect with those younger voters. She will also need to build consensus with opposition parties to pass legislation in a parliament where the LDP no longer has a majority.

Read more: The Party That Ruled Japan for Decades Is in Danger of Crumbling

Provided she becomes prime minister as expected, one of her first tasks will be to build ties with Donald Trump amid reports that the US president will make a stop in Japan in late October during a trip to Asia. 

Takaichi was the most forthright among the five candidates in the leadership race over the possibility of renegotiating parts of Japan’s trade deal with the US. But she toed the line following her election on Saturday, saying that an immediate renegotiation was not on the table. She still said Japan will make its opinions known through the appropriate routes should the deal not serve its interests.

But she said that might happen only if there are problems implementing the deal in its current form, a comment that suggests she is on board with the agreement for now.

On issues such as ramping up Japan’s defense spending and capabilities, containing China’s growing influence and building supply chains that align with US interests, she is likely to be a good match for Trump’s views. Still, she likely has less name recognition among US conservatives who have met her rival in the leadership contest, Shinjiro Koizumi, and who remember his father Junichiro wearing Elvis shades and serenading former President George W. Bush two decades ago.

“Takaichi has extensive experience as a politician, and since the US’s hardline stance toward China does not significantly conflict with her own views, she should be able to build a good relationship with President Trump,” said Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute.

For investors, the main concern will be her reputation for wanting spending to achieve growth and her penchant for central bank stimulus to goose the economy. In the latest leadership campaign, she toned down her scathing views on the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes from last year, when she described its raising of rates as “stupid.” But in a recent Kyodo survey she still said the BOJ should leave interest rates unchanged for now. That comment comes amid expectations the bank may raise borrowing costs again later this month.

Her spending plans are less clear. All of the candidates were expected to unleash a package of economic measures to help consumers deal with inflation in the fall, but she was the boldest in saying that extra bond issuance may be needed. In line with many in the LDP, she remains cautious on the idea of opposition demands to lower the sales tax, one of the costliest options for dealing with the cost-of-living crunch. 

Instead Takaichi has promised cash handouts and tax rebates to help households. She’s also hinted at raising the tax-free income allowance before the end of the year, a move that would resonate well with the Democratic Party for the People, another populist party that has made major inroads in the last year or two. 

While saying her spending plans will be “responsible” and that she’ll ensure the nation’s net debt load will fall over time, she said “the goal is achieving economic growth, not fiscal health,” in a sign of her expansionist spending tendencies. 

“While she always leaned toward a reflationary stance, the current economic environment has changed significantly, and curbing inflation has become the country’s mission,” said Meiji Yasuda’s Kodama. “Opposing the BOJ’s rate hikes would be contradictory, so I don’t think she can make extreme statements regarding monetary policy.”

Still, the possible outcome for markets when they open on Monday is a fall in the yen on expectations of slower central bank normalization, a rise in stocks on a weaker currency and an uptick in super-long yields on fears over longer term spending plans.

Takaichi was born on March 3, 1961 and grew up in the ancient capital of Nara, a city known for the emergence of Buddhism in Japan. Her father worked as a salesman at an equipment manufacturing company while her mother worked for the Nara police force. She studied business management at Kobe University. 

As a student, she rode a motorbike and played drums in a heavy metal band, and counts herself as a fan of British heavy-metal bands Black Sabbath and Iron Maiden, according to local media. She still occasionally picks up the sticks to hammer away on an electric drumset at home, if she squabbles with her husband, she told a local broadcaster in an interview. Her go-to song is “Burn” by Deep Purple. 

“To be honest I wish I could go out for karaoke, but I’ve been reining myself in these past years,” she said in that interview.

She studied at the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management, an organization focused on producing leaders in the world of politics and industry. 

She worked briefly as a news anchor before winning her first election in 1993 as an independent at a time when the LDP was in disarray following the bursting of Japan’s economic bubble. That election saw a multitude of opposition parties join forces to form a patchwork administration and oust the LDP for the first time since its formation. But as it has done subsequently, the LDP found a way of regrouping and taking back power, while most of the parties that ousted it have vanished.

Over her years as a politician, including her time as internal affairs minister, promoter of “Cool Japan” and as economic security minister, Takaichi has garnered a reputation as studious with an attention to fine detail. She is known to shun socializing and drinking with her peers.

“If I’m going to go out for dinner or have a drink, I’d much rather work or study something new,” she said during a campaign speech last year, adding that she often works over weekends. 

Shortly after winning the LDP election she doubled down on that message.

“I’m going to abandon the phrase ‘work-life balance,’” she said, prompting laughter from the rows of LDP lawmakers listening to her speech. “There is a mountain of things that we must accomplish together and I would like to see you work like horses.”

As a conservative darling and Abe protege, China may be wary of how she navigates a relationship that has remained tense in recent years. 

Previously, Takaichi did not mince her words when asked whether she would visit Yasukuni shrine, which honors Japan’s war dead including those who were charged as war criminals after World War II. Visits by previous prime ministers have angered neighboring countries and proven to be a flashpoint for Japan and China.

“Once the sentence is carried out, they are no longer criminals,” she said during a live TV show last week. She toned down her messaging after being elected Saturday, saying that she’ll make appropriate decisions over praying at the shrine.

She opened her campaign speech with a gripe about foreign tourists in Nara, saying she had heard of some tourists kicking the deer that roam freely in the local parks. 

That gripe seemed to tap into broader anxieties felt by the public as the number of foreign-born visitors and workers rises amid a drop in Japan’s own population. With Sanseito gaining ground in elections by capturing such concerns under a “Japanese first” message, Takaichi could be the conservative icon the LDP thinks it needs to win back right-wing voters. Among the five candidates, she consistently ranked as the most popular in recent opinion polls among the general public.

In a twist of irony for Japan’s likely first female prime minister, her conservatism may not bode well for gender equality issues. 

She opposes same-sex marriage or allowing spouses to have separate surnames, claiming it could undermine family unity. Novelist Kyoko Nakajima once called Takaichi “an honorary man” for maintaining views consistent with a traditional male-centered society, the Japan Times reported in 2021.

And while her appointment breaks a glass ceiling, it also risks becoming a glass cliff.

“Female leaders are often given some leeway for not doing things the ‘traditional’ way,” said Waseda’s Nakabayashi, who was skeptical whether Takaichi’s election represents a new era for women in Japan. “That’s why it’s often the case that women only get the leadership positions when the going gets really tough.”

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高市早苗 日本首相 保守主义 女性领导人 经济政策 Sanae Takaichi Japan Prime Minister Conservatism Female Leader Economic Policy
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