Fortune | FORTUNE 10月04日
关于AI泡沫的讨论:机遇与风险并存
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近期,AI行业涌现出乐观情绪和估值飙升的现象,引发了关于AI市场是否处于泡沫的广泛讨论。OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman和亚马逊创始人Jeff Bezos都曾提及AI市场存在泡沫,并将其与互联网泡沫时期进行类比。然而,Bezos认为当前的AI泡沫更像是一种“产业泡沫”,而非纯粹的“金融泡沫”,并指出产业泡沫可能带来积极的社会效益,如同90年代的生物技术泡沫催生了许多救命药物。尽管泡沫时期存在投资风险,但AI的颠覆性潜力是真实存在的,它将深刻改变每一个行业,并为社会带来巨大的益处。

💡 AI市场存在“泡沫”的讨论:OpenAI CEO Altman和亚马逊创始人Bezos均提及AI市场可能存在泡沫,并将其与互联网泡沫相比较。Altman认为“聪明人会过度兴奋于一小部分真相”,但总体而言,AI对经济将是巨大的净收益。

🔬 AI泡沫的性质:Bezos将当前的AI泡沫定义为“产业泡沫”,而非“金融泡沫”,并指出产业泡沫(如90年代的生物技术泡沫)可能对社会产生积极影响,尽管过程中存在公司破产等风险。他认为AI产业泡沫“没那么糟糕”,最终将使社会受益。

🚀 AI的颠覆性潜力与泡沫分离:Bezos强调,无论AI是否处于泡沫之中,其改变每个行业的颠覆性潜力是真实存在的。即使在泡沫时期,投资者也难以区分好坏创意,但AI的进步和对社会的益处是确凿的。Meta CEO Zuckerberg也表达了对AI发展的紧迫感,宁愿“错误地花费数千亿美元”也不愿在超级智能领域落后。

Recently, many AI-related companies have seen voracious optimism and spikes in valuations. In August, the OpenAI CEO told reporters the AI market was in a bubble. When bubbles happen, “smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth,” Altman warned, drawing parallels with the dot-com boom. Still, he said his personal belief is “on the whole, this would be a huge net win for the economy.”

Now Bezos too is saying an AI bubble exists, and has an even more positive outlook.

The similarity between this bubble and the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s worries investors and comes with high financial risks. But Bezos said the difference in nature of the current AI bubble should provide investors some solace.

“This is a kind of industrial bubble, as opposed to financial bubbles,” he said at Italian Tech Week on Friday.

Ultimately, industrial bubbles can be positive, Bezos added, pointing out that the biotech and pharmaceutical bubble in the 1990s led to the development of life-saving drugs—though in the process, many public companies that IPO’d during the boom went bankrupt or were acquired at a fraction of their starting value by the end. The cumulative net losses to public biotech companies’ bottom lines piled up to more than $40 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported in 2004.

But, Bezos said industrial bubbles are “not nearly as bad” as other bubbles, like

“It can even be good, because when the dust settles and you see who are the winners, societies benefit from those investors,” Bezos said. “That is what is going to happen here too. This is real, the benefits to society from AI are going to be gigantic.”

And during bubbles, everything gets funded, he noted. When these periods of excitement come along, investors have a hard time distinguishing the good ideas from the bad, he said, adding this is “probably happening today” with AI investments.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently made similar comments, saying an AI bubble is possible but that he would rather see his company “misspend a couple hundred billion dollars” than be late to superintelligence.

But whether AI is in a bubble or not is separate from its transformative potential, Bezos pointed out: “That doesn’t mean anything that is happening isn’t real. AI is real, and it is going to change every industry.”

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AI 人工智能 泡沫 投资 科技 AI Bubble Artificial Intelligence Investment Technology
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