Fortune | FORTUNE 10月04日
电动汽车市场已成熟,无需联邦补贴即可增长
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美国电动汽车市场已建立并准备好在没有联邦补贴的情况下增长。前特斯拉全球销售和服务总裁、现任通用汽车董事会成员乔恩·麦克尼尔表示,尽管关键的电动汽车税收抵免已过期,但由于车型选择的增加和低价车辆的可用性,该行业将继续保持增长势头。他以欧洲为例,指出当德国等国取消补贴时,电动汽车市场仍继续增长。麦克尼尔认为美国将出现类似情况,目前有65款不同的电动汽车可供选择,并且电动汽车和混合动力汽车占美国新车销售的四分之一。他认为,虽然税收抵免的结束导致了需求的提前释放,但行业的整体发展前景依然乐观,特别是低价车型的销售增长。

🔌 **市场成熟,无需补贴驱动增长:** 前特斯拉高管乔恩·麦克尼尔认为,美国电动汽车市场已经足够成熟,能够摆脱联邦税收抵免的依赖而实现持续增长。他以欧洲市场在取消补贴后依然保持增长的经验为例,表明市场一旦建立,消费者对电动汽车的需求将能够自我维持,并且可以期待未来市场规模的扩大。

🚗 **车型丰富与价格下探是关键:** 麦克尼尔强调,当前美国市场可供消费者选择的电动汽车型号已增至65款,并且电动汽车与混合动力汽车的销量占比已达到新车销售的四分之一。他指出,通用汽车电动汽车销量翻倍,其中很大一部分是低价车型,这表明价格和多样化的产品选择是吸引更广泛消费群体的核心因素,能够推动市场更健康地发展。

🏠 **车辆作为家庭能源来源的潜力:** 除了交通工具,电动汽车正在展现其作为家庭能源解决方案的潜力。麦克尼尔以其Silverado EV为例,说明其“双向”充电能力可为家庭供电长达两周,减少对独立发电机的需求。这种功能不仅增加了车辆的实用性,也可能通过与电网互动为用户带来经济效益,并可能在州一级层面获得政策支持,尤其是在电网分散的美国。

📉 **税收抵免取消对短期销售的影响与长期预测:** 尽管麦克尼尔对市场长期增长持乐观态度,但他承认税收抵免的结束确实导致了短期内需求的“提前释放”,使得部分经销商迎来销售旺季。然而,与此形成对比的是,福特CEO吉姆·法利预测,随着7500美元的消费者激励措施的取消,电动汽车市场份额可能会从目前的10%-12%缩减至5%,并认为高价电动汽车的成本是阻碍消费者购买的主要因素。

The U.S. electric vehicle market is established and ready to grow without federal subsidies, according to Jon McNeill, a former Tesla president of global sales and service and current GM board member.

Speaking to CNBC on Thursday, McNeill expressed confidence that despite the recent expiration of a key EV tax credit, the industry will continue its upward trajectory, bolstered by more model choices and the availability of lower-priced vehicles.

He pointed to Europe as a case study, noting that when countries like Germany rolled back their subsidies a couple of years ago, the EV market “surprisingly … continued to grow.”

McNeill suggested the U.S. is poised for a similar outcome, stating, “The market’s established, and we’re probably ready to have a market that can … grow without subsidies.”

In the American market is catching up, there are 65 different EV models now available to consumers, and when combining EVs and hybrids, one out of every four cars sold in the U.S. is now electrified, he added.

The recent end of the tax credit did create a “pull-forward in demand,” he said, leading to a busy quarter for dealerships. However, this sales surge wasn’t limited to one company. While Tesla saw a 7% increase, GM doubled its EV sales in the same quarter compared to the previous year. McNeill interpreted this as a positive sign, especially since many of those sales were for lower-priced models.

The bombshell of the expiring tax credit

McNeill’s remarks came amid a flurry of responses to the end of the EV tax credit. Ford CEO Jim Farley, while being interviewed during the Ford Pro Accelerate summit in Detroit, took a virtually opposite tack, predicting the EV industry will be cut in half.

He said EVs will remain a “vibrant industry” going forward, but also said it’s “going to be smaller, way smaller than we thought.” The end of the $7,500 consumer incentive is a “game-changer,” he added, projecting a steep drop in EV sales down to 5% of the industry from the current level of roughly 10% to 12%.

“The customers are pesky,” Farley said, adding that “customers are not interested in a $75,000 electric vehicle. They find them interesting. They’re fast. They’re efficient. You don’t go to the gas station. But they’re expensive.”

Charging your house with your car

McNeill said one argument in favor of the EV sector continuing to grow is the vehicles’ increasing utility far beyond transportation. He discussed the emerging trend of vehicles acting as power sources for homes. This “bidirectional” capability, he explained, allows EVs to push energy back into the grid. He shared a personal example, stating his Silverado EV can power his house for two weeks, eliminating the need for a separate generator.

Farley agreed, saying that “partial electrification is more interesting to customers than we thought … we think hybrid, EV plug-in, E-revs, those kind of partial electric solutions, America is going to fall in love with, or already is falling in love with.” He added that this is especially a big deal in states such as Florida and Texas.

McNeill mentioned that his local utility offered him a “big break on my utility bills” in exchange for allowing them access to just 20% of his vehicle’s battery capacity. While only a handful of EVs currently offer this feature, he believes “we’re going to see more and more of that.”

Policy supporting this integration is more likely to come from the state level rather than the federal government, he argued. Because the U.S. has over a thousand decentralized grids, it is more of a state issue, and states have generally been “more progressive” in creating incentives to help utilities keep electricity costs down.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

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电动汽车 市场分析 补贴 Jon McNeill Jim Farley 新能源汽车 EV Market Analysis Subsidies
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