Fortune | FORTUNE 10月04日 04:05
AI热潮与互联网泡沫的相似与不同
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前思科CEO约翰·钱伯斯认为,当前人工智能(AI)的投资热潮与1990年代的互联网泡沫有相似之处,但AI的演进速度更快,影响更深远。他指出,AI初创公司产品迭代周期极短,市场反应迅速。然而,他也警告,AI热潮可能导致部分公司出现泡沫,只有能将技术转化为可持续竞争优势的公司才能生存。AI可能比互联网更快地淘汰就业岗位,需要教育体系进行改革以适应新的技能需求。钱伯斯强调,在AI驱动的创新经济中,企业和个人都需要具备快速适应和自我革新的能力,否则可能面临淘汰。他还谈到了中美在技术竞争和地缘政治方面的复杂关系,认为未来十年将充满挑战。

🚀 AI发展速度远超互联网:钱伯斯认为AI的演进速度是互联网时代的五倍,其影响和结果也将是互联网的三倍。AI初创公司能够在一两个季度内将产品推向市场,而互联网时代则需要两到三年。这种速度差异意味着AI将更快地重塑行业格局。

📉 潜在的泡沫与淘汰:尽管AI带来了巨大的乐观情绪,钱伯斯预测部分公司将面临泡沫风险。那些无法将AI技术转化为可持续竞争优势、无法在投入巨资后产生稳定收入的公司,将难以幸存。他预言,多达50%的财富500强公司及其高管可能消失,因为他们缺乏适应AI驱动的创新经济所需的技能。

🎓 教育与就业的挑战:AI的快速发展将导致大量入门级工作消失,其速度可能超过新岗位的创造速度。钱伯斯强调,教育体系必须进行改革,以培养适应新经济需求的技能。企业需要将盈利投资于新领域以创造就业机会,否则社会将面临“干旱期”,需要对大量人口进行再培训。

🌍 全球不确定性与中美竞争:钱伯斯认为当前是历史上全球不确定性最强的时期。他将中美关系描述为激烈的竞争,而非伙伴关系,并认为中国意图在军事和经济上超越美国。他预测未来五年将充满挑战和危险,但长远来看,双方寻求和平共处是可能的,尽管短期内竞争态势严峻。

And now he is seeing potential signs of the cycle repeating with another transformative technology as a whirlwind of investments and excitement about artificial intelligence has propelled the stock market to new highs.

Chambers took a similarly meteoric ride in his early days running Cisco, which had a market value of about $15 billion in 1995, when networking equipment suddenly became must-have components for the buildup of the internet. The feverish demand briefly turned the firm into the world’s most valuable company — worth $550 billion in March 2000 — before the investment bubble burst. The crash caused Cisco’s stock price to plunge more than 80% during a period that Chambers still recalls as the worst of his career.

Cisco bounced back to deliver consistent financial growth to help establish Chambers as one of Silicon Valley’s most respected leaders before he stepped down as CEO in 2015, but company’s stock price has never approached the peak it reached a quarter century ago.

While remaining Cisco’s chairman emeritus, Chambers is now as fascinated by the AI’s transformative powers as he once was by the internet revolution. Only this time he is advising CEOs as a venture capitalist investing in AI startups rather than running a company himself. Chambers, 76, recently discussed the promise and perils of the AI boom with The Associated Press. The interview has been edited for clarity.

Q: Does the current AI mania remind you of the internet boom of the 1990s?

A: Absolutely. There are a lot of parallels but there are also some spectacular differences. AI is moving at five times the speed and will produce three times the outcomes of the internet age. In the internet age, a startup would develop products for two years and then in year three, they would take that out into the market. Today, AI startups develop the product in a month and sometimes in a week, and then they bring it to market in one or two quarters.

In the internet age, there was an irrational exuberance on a really large scale. In this AI one, there is a lot of tremendous optimism that does indicate a future bubble for certain companies. Is there going to be train wreck? Yes, for those that aren’t able to translate the technology into a sustainable competitive advantage, how are you going to generate revenue after all the money you poured into it?

Q: Do you think AI is going to eliminate a lot of jobs?

A: It happened with the internet. The problem this time is that if I am right about AI moving at five times the speed of the internet, we are going to destroy jobs faster than we can replace them. Will we be able to replace them over time? Yes, but there is going to be a drought while we have to re-educate lots of people.

Q: Does that worry you?

A: Big time!

Q: What do we need to be doing to be prepared for this upheaval?

A: We need to change education. Entry-level jobs, both white and blue collar, are going to disappear fast. We are creating more productivity, but we have to create more jobs as well. If companies start making more money, they are either going to increase the dividend or invest in new areas. Hopefully, the majority will invest in new areas to create new jobs.

You will see successful companies expand and grow dramatically, but you are probably going to see 50% of the Fortune 500 companies disappear and 50% of the executives of the Fortune 500 disappear. They won’t have the skills to adjust to this new innovation economy driven by AI because they were trained in silos they were trained to move at the speed of a five-year cycle as opposed to a 12-month cycle.

Q: Do you think this is one of the most uncertain times you have ever seen?

A: It’s the most uncertain time on a global basis, ever. I would argue that this is the new normal. With the speed the market is moving at now, you have to be able to reinvent yourself, which most CEOs and business leaders don’t know how to do, especially with AI.

Q: What’s your view of how Big Tech has been working with President Donald Trump during his second term in office?

A: Let’s be realistic. Silicon Valley moved right, there shouldn’t be any doubt. They did it for economic reasons. And practicality, they did it for their shareholders but also regulation was getting out of control. They weren’t able to grow and China was plainly beating us.

Q: How worried are you about China?

A: I think China has full intention to win at the U.S.’s expense. In China, there are no rules, there is no intellectual property, there are no issues about misusing the power. They intend to blow past militarily, economically, and in every other way. I do not view them as a partner, I view them as a serious competitor on all fronts and someone I don’t trust. I think over time people are going to recognize it’s in the U.S.’s best interest and it’s in China’s best interest for us to get along. So go out 10 years, and that’s the most likely outcome. But I think the next five years are going to be really bumpy and dangerous. We should have no illusions that they intend to crush us.

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AI 人工智能 互联网泡沫 技术颠覆 就业 教育改革 中美竞争 John Chambers Cisco Future of Work Innovation Economic Trends
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