The Middle East and North Africa’s (MENA) solar capacity is set for explosive growth, rising from 18 GW in 2023 to 220 GW by 2035 under current policies, and potentially surging to 450 GW if governments accelerate adoption, according to a new International Energy Agency (IEA) report.
This 12-fold (220 GW) or 20-fold (450 GW) growth in solar would drive the share of renewables in generation to 25% by 2035, up from 6% in 2024. Under STEPS, Saudi Arabia will be responsible for over 1/3rd of the growth to 2035, followed by Egypt, Oman, and the UAE.
“The expansion of solar PV would also improve resilience in post-conflict areas by bypassing reliance on weakened grids, including across Lebanon, Syria and Yemen,” according to the IEA report titled The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa.
The report writers attribute this expected growth in solar generation capacity of the region to falling technology costs, abundant resources, and the alignment of supply availability with cooling needs. Electricity consumption here is expected to rise by 50% by 2035, with around 40% to come from cooling and desalination sectors. Urbanization, industrialization, electrification of transport, and expansion of digital infrastructure such as data centers will be other driving factors.
“Demand for electricity is surging across the Middle East and North Africa, driven by the rapidly rising need for air conditioning and water desalination in a heat- and water-stressed region with growing populations and economies,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
Additionally, countries here are also making strategic efforts to free up oil and gas for higher-value uses or export.
Nevertheless, it will be natural gas that will be the leading source of electricity generation in the MENA region based on its current policy settings. It will lower the share of oil-fueled power generation to 5% by 2035, from 20% at present.
Natural gas was responsible for 70% of the region’s electricity generation in 2024. Over the next decade, its capacity will rise by over 110 GW, adding to 350 GW in operation in 2024. Solar PV will complement it in the power mix. Among other sources, nuclear energy will also expand, tripling from current capacity to 19 GW by 2035, according to the IEA.
Power sector investment in the region reached $44 billion in 2024, and is estimated to further go up by 50% by 2035, with nearly 40% going to grid improvements.
The report says MENA needs modern grids and regional links for secure power. Renewables must be balanced with storage, demand flexibility, and gas plants. Better energy efficiency, especially improving air conditioners, could significantly cut peak demand, according to the writers.
The complete IEA report is available for free download on its website.
