俄罗斯经济增长放缓，面临国防和社会开支的压力。西方制裁和巨额军费开支正侵蚀其经济的增长和稳定。为应对此局面，莫斯科正计划提高税收，特别是针对富裕人群，以筹集资金支持在乌克兰的军事行动。一位俄罗斯商界领袖指出，经济的“软着陆”并非如预期般平稳，并强调需要一个可持续的增长率来应对各项任务。经济的军事化以及央行加息抑制通胀的举措，都对经济增长带来了挑战。此举表明克里姆林宫正为长期军事融资做准备，而消费者和军事工业复合体将直接受到影响。

📉 **经济增长面临挑战**: 俄罗斯经济增长放缓，预计2025年GDP增长率将远低于年初设定的2%目标，甚至可能仅略高于1%。俄工业家与企业家联盟主席亚历山大·绍欣警告称，目前的经济降温“不太软、也不太受控”，需要尽快实现反弹。

💰 **拟增富人税支撑军费**: 为应对日益增长的国防、安全和社会开支，俄罗斯总统普京正考虑提高富人的税收。此举被分析人士解读为克里姆林宫正为长期军事融资做准备，而这部分资金将由消费者承担，并继续助推军事工业复合体的繁荣。

🔗 **经济军事化与高利率的影响**: 俄罗斯经济在承受西方制裁的同时，也因巨额国防开支而变得高度军事化，这引发了经济过热的担忧。为抑制通胀，俄罗斯央行大幅提高了利率，虽然起到了控制通胀的作用，但也进一步减缓了经济增长，对企业和投资活动造成了影响。

⚖️ **寻求可持续增长**: 绍欣强调，一个稳定且可持续的经济增长率对于俄罗斯至关重要。他认为，2%至2.5%的经济增长率是“非过热经济”的理想状态，能够支持解决广泛的社会和经济任务，确保国家经济的长期健康发展。

Russia's economy is slowing, raising concerns about funding defense and social spending.Western sanctions and soaring military outlays are straining its growth and stability.Moscow is planning tax hikes to help bankroll the Ukraine war effort.

Russia's economy has slowed to a pace that could jeopardize its ability to cover surging defense, security, and social costs, warned a top business leader.

"It seems to me that indeed, this cooling or 'managed soft landing' is not very soft and not very managed," Alexander Shokhin, the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, told Rossiya 24 TV channel on Tuesday.

Shokhin said that at the start of the year, officials assumed Russia needed at least 2% annual growth to cover defense, security, social spending, and investment. But growth is now expected to fall well short of that target.

He said Russia would be "lucky" to see GDP growth of just over 1% by the end of 2025 and 1.3% in 2026. Russia's central bank has forecasted 1.0% to 2.0% GDP growth for 2025 — sharply lower than Russia's 4.3% GDP growth in 2024.

Meanwhile, analysts polled by Interfax news agency expect Russian economic growth to come in at 1.1% this year — down from their August forecast of 1.4%.

"This is low, undoubtedly. Therefore, it is very important that this period of cooling or managed contraction, or 'managed soft landing,' does not drag on, because a rebound is already needed," Shokhin said.

Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered sweeping Western sanctions, Russia has kept its economy afloat through massive defense spending and revenue from oil and gas exports.

That spending has kept factories busy and supported output — but at a cost.

Russia's economy has become so militarized that its top central banker warned at the end of 2023 that it risked overheating. To cool demand, the central bank sharply raised interest rates, a move that curbed inflation but further slowed growth.

Shokhin argued that Russia needs a stronger, sustainable baseline growth rate to remain stable.

"2% to 2.5% is that optimal economic growth rate for a non-overheated economy that indeed makes it possible to solve a wide range of tasks," Shokhin said.

Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was looking to hike taxes on the rich to bankroll the war in Ukraine that started in February 2022.

"Tax increases confirm that the Kremlin is preparing for long-term military financing, for which consumers are beginning to pay, and on which the military-industrial complex continues to flourish," wrote Alexander Kolyandr, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, in a Monday report.