Fortune | FORTUNE 10月03日 02:41
特斯拉第三季度交付量超预期,但未来增长面临挑战
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特斯拉公布了超出分析师预期的第三季度全球汽车交付量,达到497,099辆,同比增长7.4%。这一增长部分得益于美国7500美元电动汽车税收抵免的刺激。然而,尽管近期股价飙升,但分析师指出,税收抵免的逐步取消以及美国市场对电动汽车需求的潜在减弱,给特斯拉未来的盈利能力和增长带来了不确定性。Model Y和Model 3仍是销量主力,而其他车型销量下滑。特斯拉在能源产品部署上也取得了进展,但更经济的Model Y版本推出延迟,以及监管政策的变化,都可能影响其长期发展。

📈 **交付量超预期,税收抵免功不可没**:特斯拉第三季度交付量达到497,099辆,超出市场普遍预期,这在很大程度上归功于美国7500美元电动汽车税收抵免政策在9月30日前的刺激作用,促使消费者提前购车,为特斯拉的核心汽车业务带来了短期提振,尤其是在其产品线略显老旧且面临激烈竞争的背景下。

📉 **税收抵免取消与市场前景担忧**:分析师指出,税收抵免的取消对未来电动汽车需求构成挑战。随着美国市场的补贴退坡,以及监管机构对燃油经济性和排放标准的放松,特斯拉赖以获得收入的监管信用额度可能减少。多家机构预测特斯拉2025年的年销量将出现下滑,显示出市场对短期内补贴消失后的需求前景持谨慎态度。

🚗 **主力车型表现稳健,其他车型承压**:Model Y SUV和Model 3轿车继续担当销售主力,第三季度销量合计增长9.4%,达到481,166辆。然而,包括Model X、Model S和Cybertruck在内的其他特斯拉车型销量则同比下滑了30%,这表明特斯拉的销量增长高度依赖于其少数几款主流车型。

💡 **能源业务拓展与未来产品规划**:除了汽车业务,特斯拉在能源产品领域也取得了显著进展,第三季度部署了12.5千兆瓦时的能源产品,远高于去年同期。公司还推出了下一代储能系统和Megablock产品。然而,更经济版本的Model Y推出被推迟至第四季度,且产量爬坡速度可能慢于预期,这可能会影响其在当前补贴退出后的销量支撑能力。

The company delivered 497,099 vehicles worldwide, 7.4% more than a year ago. While that total far exceeds the roughly 439,600 average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg, Tesla’s shares slumped Thursday following a record monthly gain in market capitalization.

A rush to take advantage of a $7,500 tax credit for EV purchases delivered a temporary boost to Tesla’s core automotive business, which languished for several quarters under the weight of an aging lineup and rising competition. The company also faced a consumer backlash to Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s politics as he worked closely with President Donald Trump early this year.

Investors recently looked past Tesla’s first-half sales weakness to Musk’s promises of growth in areas such as driverless vehicles, artificial intelligence and robotics. The carmaker’s shares soared 33% in September, recouping early-year losses and adding $401.9 billion of market value.

The stock gave back some of those gains Thursday, falling as much as 3.2% as of noon New York time.

“While the numbers were better than expected, we think it is important to highlight the data is backward-looking,” said Garrett Nelson, an equity analyst at CFRA Research. “Looking ahead, we think there are still major questions regarding the earnings impact of legislative changes on the tradeable emissions credit market and EV demand in an unsubsidized US market.”

The phase-out of EV tax credits in the US after Sept. 30 helped drive widespread demand for electric models from the likes of General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and [hotlink]Hyundai Motor[/hotlink] Co. last quarter. Rivian Automotive Inc. also reported better-than-expected vehicle deliveries, though the EV maker narrowed its annual guidance toward the lower end of its prior range.

“This sense of urgency created consumer reaction, and we’re seeing that in the data,” Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive, said on Bloomberg Television. “It’s going to be challenging going forward,” she added, predicting a slowdown in the fourth quarter.

Tesla’s deliveries tally offers a preview of the earnings results scheduled for Oct. 22. Next month the company will hold its annual general meeting, where investors will vote on a new compensation package for Musk potentially worth $1 trillion.

The Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan continue to do the heavy lifting for Tesla, with combined sales of those two rising 9.4% to 481,166 vehicles  last quarter. Sales of other Teslas — the Model X, Model S and Cybertruck — fell 30%.

The company also reported that it deployed 12.5 gigawatt hours of energy products during the quarter, up from 6.9 GWh a year ago. The company unveiled a next-generation energy-storage system during the quarter, along with a new product called Megablock that combines storage units with a transformer and switchgear.

Tesla has yet to offer many details about the more affordable version of the Model Y that could help buoy sales now that federal EV tax credits have expired in the US. Executives have said that while initial production started in June, they elected to put off the launch until the fourth quarter and cautioned that output will ramp up slower than initially expected.

While the tax credit expiration boosted third-quarter sales, the pull-forward effect could mean weaker EV demand in the final months of the year. Musk has warned Tesla could face several “rough quarters” after the incentives go away and before the company’s autonomous vehicles deploy at scale.

Aside from the tax credit, the Trump administration has also moved to unwind fuel economy and emissions requirements, choking off regulatory credit revenue that supported Tesla for years.

Wall Street is still expecting Tesla to log its second consecutive annual sales decline. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg project the company will deliver around 1.61 million vehicles in 2025, down from 1.79 million last year.

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Tesla 电动汽车 交付量 税收抵免 能源业务 汽车行业 Tesla EVs Deliveries Tax Credit Energy Business Automotive Industry
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