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私营部门就业数据低于预期
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根据ADP的数据,私营企业在6月份失去了32,000个工作岗位,远低于经济学家预测的50,000个增幅。这表明尽管第二季度经济增长强劲,但美国雇主对招聘持谨慎态度。教育和健康服务业是少数几个增加就业的行业,而休闲和酒店业、其他服务业以及专业和商业服务业则出现了显著的岗位流失。大型企业的就业有所增长,但中小型企业却经历了裁员。工资增长保持稳定,但在此期间,政府部门因部分停摆而暂停发布重要的劳动力市场数据,这给美联储的决策带来了不确定性。

📈 私营部门就业数据不及预期:ADP报告显示,6月份私营企业就业岗位减少了32,000个,远低于经济学家预测的50,000个增幅。这一数据表明,尽管经济整体增长,但企业在招聘方面表现出谨慎态度,这与此前公布的强劲经济数据形成对比。

📉 行业就业结构分化明显:在整体就业下滑的背景下,教育和健康服务业逆势增长了33,000个岗位,而休闲和酒店业(减少19,000个)、其他服务业(减少16,000个)以及专业和商业服务业(减少13,000个)则出现了显著的岗位流失,反映出不同行业在劳动力市场上面临的差异化挑战。

🏢 企业规模对就业影响不一:大型企业(500名以上员工)在6月份增加了33,000个就业岗位,显示出大型企业相对较强的招聘能力。然而,中型企业(50-499名员工)和小型企业(少于50名员工)则分别流失了20,000个和40,000个岗位,凸显了不同规模企业在经济波动中的脆弱性差异。

📊 工资增长平稳,但数据发布受阻:6月份的工资增长与上月相比变化不大,留任员工的薪资年增长率为4.5%,而跳槽员工的薪资增长率为6.6%。然而,由于政府部分停摆,劳工部暂停发布包括非农就业报告在内的多项经济数据,这使得美联储在评估经济状况和制定货币政策时面临数据真空的困境。

Companies in the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in June, payroll processing firm ADP said Wednesday.

The figure is below economists’ estimates of a gain of 50,000 jobs. The prior month's payrolls number was revised downward to a loss of 3,000 from an initially reported gain of 54,000.

"Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring," said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.

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Despite widespread job losses in September, the education and health services sector gained 33,000 positions in the month. Natural resources and mining added 4,000 positions and information gained 3,000.

Meanwhile, leisure and hospitality lost 19,000 positions while other services shed 16,000. Professional and business services lost 13,000 jobs and financial activities shed 9,000.

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Trade, transportation, and utilities lost 7,000 jobs, while construction and manufacturing shed 5,000 and 2,000, respectively.

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Large businesses – those with 500 or more employees – added 33,000 jobs in the month. Businesses with 50 to 499 employees lost 20,000 workers. Establishments with fewer than 50 employees shed 40,000 jobs.

Wage growth in September was little changed from last month. People staying in their roles saw their pay climb 4.5% from the prior year, while pay gains for those staying in their jobs slowed to 6.6% from 7.1% in August.

The ADP data is released before the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report, which is due on Friday morning and can differ notably. The government data is expected to show an increase of 50,000 positions, above the 22,000 reported in August.

However, due to a partial government shutdown after lawmakers failed to approve a funding extension, the Labor Department said it would halt all economic data releases. This includes the initial jobless claims on Thursday and September nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday the central bank will look at alternate data sources to consider at its October meeting if upcoming economic data is not released as scheduled. The Fed looks at payrolls data to help make decisions on interest rates. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Oct. 28-29.

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the best source of data that we have," Goolsbee told FOX Business Network’s Edward Lawrence in an exclusive interview. "It pains me that we wouldn’t be getting official statistics at exactly a moment when we’re trying to figure out is the economy in transition."

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私营部门就业 ADP报告 劳动力市场 就业数据 经济 Private Sector Employment ADP Report Labor Market Employment Data Economy
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