资深经济学家史蒂夫·汉克（Steve Hanke）警告称，人工智能（AI）领域的繁荣可能重蹈互联网泡沫破裂的覆辙。他指出，如果AI公司未能达到预期的增长目标，可能表明市场已经过热。汉克建议投资者应做好准备，他将当前的AI热潮与1995年多伦多信托阿根廷市场的情形相提并论，当时对科技和互联网的巨大热情最终导致了非理性的繁荣，并以泡沫破裂告终。他强调，当前市场是理性还是非理性，很大程度上取决于AI公司能否兑现其惊人的营收预测，并列举了英伟达、OpenAI、甲骨文和Palantir等公司的具体增长预测作为例证。

📈 **AI热潮的潜在风险**：经济学家史蒂夫·汉克将当前AI领域的繁荣与2000年互联网泡沫的破灭相比较，认为AI公司如果未能达到其增长预期，可能会导致市场过热，并警告投资者要为潜在的“颠簸”做好准备。他用“系好安全带”来形象地比喻这一风险。

💡 **“非理性繁荣”的可能性**：汉克引用了美联储前主席格林斯潘提出的“非理性繁荣”概念，并指出当前AI市场资金的涌入，使得判断其繁荣是基于理性还是非理性变得困难。他强调，市场的最终走向将取决于AI公司能否实现其宏伟的营收预测。

🚀 **多家AI公司的激进增长预测**：文章列举了多家AI领域重要公司的具体增长预测，包括英伟达预计本季度营收增长约54%至540亿美元；ChatGPT的母公司OpenAI预计今年营收将翻两番以上至130亿美元；甲骨文预计其云基础设施营收将在五年内飙升14倍至1440亿美元；Palantir预计今年年收入将增长45%至41亿美元以上。这些预测的实现程度是判断市场健康的关键。

📉 **历史教训**：汉克回顾了互联网泡沫破裂的惨痛经历，当时以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数从2000年3月的峰值暴跌近80%，标普500指数同期下跌约45%。这表明，即使是高增长预期，也可能面临巨大的市场波动和调整风险。

Veteran economist Steve Hanke said the AI boom could end in disaster like the dot-com bubble.AI companies falling short of their growth forecasts could show the market is overheated, he said."It might be wise to buckle your seat belt," Hanke said.

Investors should buckle up as the AI boom could ultimately collapse like the dot-com bubble, veteran trader and economist Steve Hanke has said.

"As money pours into AI, it's hard to know whether the market's exuberance is rational or irrational," Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, said by email.

Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan coined the term "irrational exuberance" in his famous description of the market mood as US stocks surged 13-fold between 1982 and 1999, fueled by immense excitement about technology and the internet.

Hanke, who was the president of Toronto Trust Argentina when it was the world's best-performing market mutual fund in 1995, said that dot-com euphoria eventually hit irrational levels and "ended when the bubble popped."

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index plummeted nearly 80% from its peak in March 2000 to its trough in October 2002, while the benchmark S&P 500 plunged around 45% over the same period.

Hanke, who was also economic advisor to President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, said that the answer to whether the market is rational or irrational this time will "largely depend on whether the AI firms' spectacular revenue forecasts hold water."

Here are some of the key growth projections he was referring to:

AI chipmaker Nvidia has said it expects revenue to grow by about 54% year on year this quarter to $54 billion. Its stock has surged around 12-fold since the start of 2023.OpenAI, ChatGPT's parent company, has projected its revenue will more than triple this year to $13 billion.Oracle has projected its cloud infrastructure revenue to soar 14-fold to $144 billion in the five years to May 2030, dwarfing the enterprise-software company's total revenue of $57 billion last financial year. Its stock is up around 240% since the start of 2023.

Palantir expects its annual revenue to grow 45% this year to north of $4.1 billion, underpinned by at least an 85% jump in US commercial revenue to over $1.3 billion. Its stock is up about 27-fold since the start of 2023.

Hanke signed off by cautioning investors of a bumpy road ahead.

"It might be wise to buckle your seat belt," he wrote.