cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 10月01日 13:59
STCast:区域边界优化与月度预测的AI框架
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本文提出STCast,一种基于AI的区域边界优化和动态月度预测分配框架,通过空间对齐注意力机制和时序混合专家模块,提高区域预测和极端事件预测的准确性。

arXiv:2509.25210v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: To gain finer regional forecasts, many works have explored the regional integration from the global atmosphere, e.g., by solving boundary equations in physics-based methods or cropping regions from global forecasts in data-driven methods. However, the effectiveness of these methods is often constrained by static and imprecise regional boundaries, resulting in poor generalization ability. To address this issue, we propose Spatial-Temporal Weather Forecasting (STCast), a novel AI-driven framework for adaptive regional boundary optimization and dynamic monthly forecast allocation. Specifically, our approach employs a Spatial-Aligned Attention (SAA) mechanism, which aligns global and regional spatial distributions to initialize boundaries and adaptively refines them based on attention-derived alignment patterns. Furthermore, we design a Temporal Mixture-of-Experts (TMoE) module, where atmospheric variables from distinct months are dynamically routed to specialized experts using a discrete Gaussian distribution, enhancing the model's ability to capture temporal patterns. Beyond global and regional forecasting, we evaluate our STCast on extreme event prediction and ensemble forecasting. Experimental results demonstrate consistent superiority over state-of-the-art methods across all four tasks.

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AI预测 区域边界优化 月度预测 极端事件预测 时空数据分析
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