Fortune | FORTUNE 09月29日 23:48
韩国总统警告:美国要求3500亿美元现金支付或引发金融危机
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文章探讨了美国总统特朗普要求韩国支付3500亿美元现金可能带来的严重后果。韩国总统李在明警告称,若以美国要求的形式一次性支付如此巨额现金,将可能导致韩国面临如同1997年亚洲金融危机般的灾难。这是因为韩国的美元外汇储备相对有限,且韩元在全球金融市场的地位不及日元,大规模现金转移将严重冲击韩元汇率。文章还对比了韩国与日本在投资协议细节上的差异,指出日本拥有更充足的货币储备和更国际化的日元,因此其投资条款不适用于韩国。尽管韩国方面已明确表示无法满足美方要求,但特朗普仍坚持要求“预付”。此外,此前美国移民局突袭韩国现代汽车工厂逮捕韩籍工人事件,也给两国关系增添了新的紧张因素。

🇺🇸 巨额现金支付要求引发担忧:美国总统特朗普要求韩国一次性支付3500亿美元现金,韩国总统李在明警告此举可能导致韩国金融市场和经济遭受毁灭性打击,并重演1997年金融危机。

📉 韩元汇率风险与外汇储备不足:文章指出,韩元在全球金融市场的地位不如日元,且韩国外汇储备相对有限,大规模现金流出将可能导致韩元大幅贬值,引发金融动荡。

⚖️ 日韩投资协议的差异性:韩国强调其情况与日本不同,日本拥有更充足的货币储备(1.3万亿美元)和更具国际地位的日元(占全球市场份额17%),因此不应将对日协议条款强加于韩国。

🤝 双边关系紧张与劳工问题:除了贸易谈判的僵局,美国移民局此前对现代汽车工厂的突袭搜查并逮捕韩籍工人事件,也加剧了韩美之间的紧张关系,尽管双方已就寻求合理解决方案达成一致。

President Donald Trump’s demand that Seoul hand over $350 billion in cash could devastate South Korea’s financial markets and economy.

In July, Korea agreed to invest $350 billion in the U.S., in exchange for Washington setting a 15% tariff rate. But not all the details were spelled out at the time, and both sides have been in negotiations to finalize the deal, with tensions ramping up lately.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has insisted Korea abide by terms similar to what Japan accepted, including the transfer of cash soon after investment projects get U.S. approval.

But earlier this month, President Lee Jae Myung told Reuters such requirements would trigger a calamity similar to the one that eventually required an International Monetary Fund bailout.

“Without a currency swap, if we were to withdraw $350 billion in the manner that the U.S. is demanding and to invest this all in cash in the U.S., South Korea would face a situation as it had in the 1997 financial crisis,” he said. 

That’s because Korea has foreign exchange reserves of $410 billion and its currency isn’t a mainstay on global financial markets like Japan’s yen, meaning a sudden transfer of $350 billion in cash to the U.S. would send the won into a tailspin.

A swap line between the Bank of Korea and the Federal Reserve would provide Seoul with dollar liquidity that would help avoid jolting foreign-exchange markets.

Korea has also pointed to major differences with Japan and why the terms of Tokyo’s $550 billion investment pledge shouldn’t be applied in the same way. For instance, Japan has more than triple Korea’s currency reserves at $1.3 trillion. The yen is also a much more international currency, accounting for 17% global market share versus just 2% for the won.

But Lee’s warning didn’t sway Trump, who said on Thursday Korea must pay the money “upfront.” Over the weekend, Korea’s national security advisor reiterated the inability to meet U.S. demands.

“Our position is not a negotiating tactic. It is objectively and realistically not a level we are able to handle,” Wi Sung-lac said in an interview with Korean media. “We are not able to pay $350 billion in cash.”

Trump’s hard-line stance on the trade deal adds further strain to bilateral ties after U.S. immigration agents raided a Hyundai plant in Georgia earlier this month and arrested hundreds of Korean workers who were helping get the factory ready for production.

Trump has since said he didn’t want the raid to “frighten off” foreign investment in the U.S., and a State Department official expressed regret over the detention of the workers.

Still, people in Korea were outraged, especially as the raid came days after Lee met Trump at the White House and appeared to have a successful visit. For his part, Lee didn’t blame Trump.

“I do not believe this was intentional, and the U.S. has apologized for this incident, and we have agreed to seek reasonable measures in this regard and we are working on them,” he told Reuters.

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韩国 美国 贸易 金融危机 韩元 外汇储备 双边关系 South Korea United States Trade Financial Crisis Won Foreign Exchange Reserves Bilateral Relations
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