taiyangnews 09月29日 22:44
东南亚可再生能源潜力巨大,太阳能和风能前景广阔
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国际能源署(IEA)的最新报告指出,东南亚地区拥有巨大的太阳能和风能资源潜力,估计有20太瓦(TW)的未开发容量,远超当前总发电量55倍。报告强调,利用这些可再生能源能提升能源独立性、降低进口成本并促进可持续发展。尽管目前该地区电力结构仍以煤炭和天然气为主,但国际能源危机凸显了可靠、经济的能源供应的重要性。太阳能光伏因成本大幅下降而成为极具吸引力的选择,预计未来十年可满足该地区三分之一的电力需求增长。多数东盟国家已设定净零排放目标,并积极推动政策工具以加速可再生能源的部署。报告提出,通过增加常规电厂灵活性、改进预测、更新电网代码等措施,东南亚可在短期内应对可再生能源并网挑战,并可通过借鉴国际经验,结合多种灵活资源、需求响应和储能技术,应对长期挑战,最终实现可靠、可负担的电力供应。

💡 东南亚拥有惊人的可再生能源潜力,国际能源署报告估计其太阳能和风能资源总量高达20太瓦,远超当前区域总发电量的55倍。这为该地区实现能源独立、降低进口依赖和提升可持续性提供了巨大机遇。

📈 尽管目前东南亚多国电力结构仍依赖煤炭和天然气,但国际能源危机凸显了能源供应安全与经济性的重要性。太阳能光伏因成本大幅下降(自2010年以来下降90%)已成为极具吸引力的选择,与风能一道成为新建发电最具成本效益的选项之一。

🚀 预计未来十年,可再生能源将满足东南亚地区三分之一的电力需求增长。八成东盟成员国已宣布净零排放目标,并通过竞争性拍卖和直接购电协议等政策工具加速可再生能源的部署,为区域能源转型奠定基础。

🛠️ 报告提出,通过实施增加常规电厂灵活性、改进可再生能源预测、更新电网代码和现代化监控系统等低成本、成熟的措施,东南亚可在短期内(至2030年)有效管理太阳能和风能的并网挑战,对电网的影响将保持在可控范围内。

🔗 展望未来(至2035年),IEA建议东南亚国家应借鉴全球经验,通过发展包括热电和水电在内的灵活资源、需求响应、跨区域电网互联以及能源存储等多种手段,应对日益增长的灵活性需求。同时,现代化国家电网并加强区域电网互联,是确保可靠、可负担电力供应和促进太阳能、风能整合的关键。

A new International Energy Agency (IEA) report highlights Southeast Asia’s vast renewable energy potential, calculating around 20 TW of untapped solar and wind capacity—enough to power the region many times over. This is roughly 55 times its current total generation capacity.  

“Harnessing even a fraction of the available renewable resources would enhance energy independence, reduce import costs, and increase sustainability,” claim the writers of the report titled Integrating Solar and Wind in Southeast Asia.  

For Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, coal dominates the power generation mix, whereas Thailand, Singapore and Brunei Darussalam depend on gas as their main source of electricity supply. For Lao PDR, hydropower accounts for more than 70% share, which is also a leading source in Cambodia, Myanmar and Vietnam.

Nevertheless, fuel price volatility and supply disruptions following the global energy crisis in the aftermath of COVID-19 underscored the importance of meeting the growing electricity demand with affordable and secure energy supply.  

Solar PV is an attractive proposition—as opposed to expensive imported fossil fuel supply on which several nations in the region are heavily reliant on—as its costs have declined by 90% since 2010. Both solar and wind are now among the most cost-competitive options for new electricity generation across Southeast Asia, according to the IEA report. 

Over the coming decade, analysts expect renewable energy to meet over 1/3rd of the region’s electricity demand growth. The momentum is building with 8 out of 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) having announced net zero emission targets. They also hail the role of policy instruments such as competitive auctions and direct power purchase agreements (PPA) that accelerate renewable energy adoption.  

According to the report, Southeast Asia can manage near-term solar and wind integration challenges with low-cost, proven measures without major system overhauls. Most ASEAN countries are in early Variable Renewables Integration (VRE) phases, where impacts on the grid are minor to moderate, and are expected to remain so until 2030. Key measures include increasing flexibility of conventional power plants, improving forecasting, updating grid codes, and modernizing monitoring and control systems.  

By 2035, some countries may face greater flexibility needs. Learning from the examples of their peers globally, like Japan and Australia, Southeast Asia can manage the situation through a combination of flexible resources, including thermal and hydropower, demand response, interconnections, and energy storage.  

The IEA recommends modernizing national grids and linking power systems across Southeast Asia to ensure reliable, affordable electricity and easier integration of solar and wind. Countries should also work together regionally and nationally to meet rising demand, support clean energy goals, and improve energy access and grid resilience. 

The complete IEA report is available for free download on its website.  

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东南亚 可再生能源 太阳能 风能 国际能源署 能源转型 Southeast Asia Renewable Energy Solar Power Wind Power IEA Energy Transition
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