Knowledge at Wharton 09月29日
输入偏差:商业决策中的误区
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本文探讨了商业决策中常见的输入偏差现象,通过《杰瑞·宋飞秀》中一个情节为例,指出基于输入信息(如虚假工作时长)来判断结果会导致决策失误。

Fans of the hit TV comedy “The Jerry Seinfeld Show” may remember an episode in which Jerry’s friend George leaves his car parked at work so that the boss will think George is putting in long hours even when he’s not. The idea of course is that George’s apparent productivity will net him a higher raise or bonus. Wharton professor Maurice Schweitzer would call George’s behavior “an attempt to invoke the input bias – the use of input information (in this case the false impression of long hours) to judge outcomes.” As extreme as this example might seem business decisions are frequently made based on input that is either biased or manipulated as Schweitzer and colleague Karen Chinander suggest in a new paper entitled “The Input Bias: The Misuse of Input Information in Judgments of Outcomes.”


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商业决策 输入偏差 决策失误 工作时长 心理学
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