From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2025
Personal income increased $95.7 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $86.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.2 billion (0.6 percent).The August PCE price index increased 2.7 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.6 percent YoY in July.
Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $132.9 billion in August. Personal saving was $1.06 trillion in August and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent.
...
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for August increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.
From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for August increased 2.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.9 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added
The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.9 percent YoY, unchanged from 2.9 percent in July.
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.
Personal income and PCE were above expectations.
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.
Personal income and PCE were above expectations.
Inflation was at expectations.
Using the two-month method to estimate Q3 real PCE growth, real PCE was increasing at a 4.0% annual rate in Q3 2025. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE was increasing at 3.0%). This suggests decent PCE growth in Q3.
