Fortune | FORTUNE 09月27日
美政界人士估值引争议 TikTok交易引关注
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美国副总统JD Vance对TikTok估值140亿美元的说法引发了华尔街的震惊与质疑,远低于其他主要社交媒体公司的价值。此前,特朗普总统签署行政令,允许TikTok在美国通过剥离中国母公司字节跳动来实现美国化,以避免在美国全面禁用的局面。Vance的估值与市场分析师普遍认为的“上百亿美元”甚至“两千亿美元”相去甚远,引发了关于交易是否会为买家带来巨大利润的讨论。新所有权结构将涉及Oracle、默多克和戴尔等,旨在确保算法由美国投资者控制,并由商业利益驱动内容决策,为TikTok在美国市场的持续运营和广告吸引力带来新的可能性。

🇺🇸 JD Vance副总统提出的TikTok 140亿美元估值远低于市场预期,引发华尔街震惊,并与分析师普遍认为的“上百亿”甚至“两千亿”估值形成鲜明对比,暗示潜在买家可能以较低价格获得资产。

🚀 特朗普总统签署行政令,促使TikTok剥离中国母公司字节跳动,实现美国所有权,从而避免了在美国市场被全面禁止的命运,为应用程序的持续运营铺平了道路。

💡 新的美国所有权结构预计将涉及Oracle、媒体大亨默多克和计算机巨头戴尔等,旨在确保TikTok的算法掌握在美国投资者手中,并由商业利益驱动内容决策,以实现公平对待所有用户。

📈 尽管估值存在争议,但分析师认为,随着美国交易的尘埃落定,TikTok在美国市场将能吸引更多广告商,尽管其能否从电视或其他社交媒体平台争夺市场份额仍待观察。

Wall Street was stunned by Vice President JD Vance’s estimate of TikTok’s valuation, as he put it well below what other top social media companies are worth.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday, clearing the way for a deal to put TikTok in U.S. hands following a divestiture by its Chinese parent ByteDance. That avoids a total shutdown of the app in the U.S. that was required by law unless TikTok shed its China-based owner.

Speaking as the president signed the executive order in the Oval Office, Vance pegged TikTok’s worth at $14 billion—equal to Snapchat parent Snap. While he acknowledged that TikTok’s buyers will ultimately determine the app’s value, his number was still shocking to some.

“This is crazy. I mean, the number’s got to be wrong. It doesn’t make any sense,” Brent Thill, senior technology analyst at Jefferies, told CNBC on Thursday.

Ashwin Binwani, founder of Alpha Binwani Capital, told Bloomberg Vance’s $14 billion assessment is only one-third of TikTok’s actual value.

“By every major financial metric and peer comparison, this price tag looks dramatically misaligned with reality,” he said.

Earlier this year, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives put TikTok’s worth at “well north of $100 billion” with the algorithm, and up to $200 billion in a “best case scenario.” Without the algorithm, he put it at $40 billion-$50 billion.

Vance said the algorithm will be “under the control of American investors,” adding that more details would be forthcoming. Reports earlier this week said Oracle will recreate TikTok’s algorithm and provide a new U.S. version while also ensuring security for users’ data.

Thill pointed out that social media giant Meta is worth nearly $2 trillion. Instagram alone has 3 billion global monthly active users. Meanwhile, TikTok has about 1.2 billion-1.8 billion users around the world, with 170 million in the U.S. alone.

“So the only way you could read into that is, are they getting themselves a good deal, and they’re going to mark it up and it’s going to be a huge windfall? But it makes zero sense from what I can see,” Thill said.

The U.S. ownership structure is still being finalized, but Trump said Oracle and its cofounder Larry Ellison would play a “big” role in managing the app, while conservative media mogul Rupert Murdoch and computer billionaire Michael Dell would sit on the board. Trump also hinted that three more “blue-chip” backers are also part of the ownership group.

While Trump joked about TikTok’s algorithm favoring MAGA-related content, he said “everyone’s going to be treated fairly.” Vance also stressed business would drive the app’s content decisions.

“We want the business to make decisions about content based on the interest of the business and based on the interest of the users, and that’s what we think will happen,” he said.

Thill said TikTok should be able to draw more advertisers to the app now that a deal has been struck to keep it operating in the U.S. and the “drama is over.”

Meta’s Instagram still dominates as far as monetizing its platform, but Thill said there’s room for TikTok, though it’s unclear whether it will take market share from TV or other social media apps.

“There’s three platforms really that most are using: Meta, TikTok, and Snap,” he added. “And I think ultimately we’ve seen this. I think there is room for TikTok and monetization. Snap just hasn’t been able to do it, and it’s been it’s been a broken record for awhile.”

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TikTok JD Vance 美国交易 估值争议 科技政策 社交媒体
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