Fortune | FORTUNE 09月26日
房屋翻新投资回报率下降
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近期数据显示,房屋翻新(home flipping)的投资回报率持续走低。根据Attom的数据分析,2024年第二季度,典型的房屋翻新投资回报率(扣除费用前)仅为25.1%,是自2008年以来的最低点。这意味着投资者在翻新房屋后出售所获得的平均毛利润也同比下降了13.6%,至65,300美元。导致这一趋势的主要原因是全国范围内持续上涨但增速放缓的房价,这显著增加了投资者购买房产的成本。尽管如此,房屋翻新交易仍然普遍,第二季度共完成约7.8万套房屋的翻新销售,占总销售额的7.4%。

📈 **投资回报率触及新低**: 2024年第二季度,房屋翻新投资的平均回报率(扣除费用前)降至25.1%,这是自2008年以来的最低水平,表明房屋翻新市场的盈利能力显著下降。

💰 **毛利润同比下滑**: 投资者在房屋翻新交易中的平均毛利润在第二季度同比下降了13.6%,降至65,300美元。这直接反映了翻新房屋的销售收入与购买及翻新成本之间的差距正在缩小。

🏠 **高昂的购房成本是主因**: 房屋价格的持续上涨是导致翻新利润下降的关键因素。即使增速放缓,不断攀升的房价也推高了投资者购买适合翻新的房屋(通常是价格较低且需要修缮的房产)的初始成本,导致“买入价”创下历史新高。

📉 **市场供需与销售放缓**: 尽管翻新利润下降,但房屋翻新交易依然普遍。然而,自2022年初以来,美国房地产市场面临销售低迷,抵押贷款利率上升导致房屋销售速度放缓,库存增加,这在一定程度上也影响了翻新项目的盈利空间。

📈 **投资者占比提升**: 尽管翻新利润下降,但由于许多购房者被高房价和高利率挤出市场,投资者(包括翻新者和租赁投资者)在房地产市场中的份额正在增加。第二季度,投资者购买了所有房屋销售量的33%,为至少五年来最高。

It pays less and less to buy and flip a home these days. From April through June, the typical home flipped by an investor resulted in a 25.1% return on investment, before expenses. That’s the lowest profit margin for such transactions since 2008, according to an analysis by Attom, a real estate data company.

Gross profits — the difference between what an investor paid for a property and what it sold for — fell 13.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier to $65,300, the firm said. Attom’s analysis defines a flipped home as a property that sells within 12 months of the last time it sold.

Home flippers buy a home, typically with cash, then pay for any repairs or upgrades needed to spruce up the property before putting it back on the market.

The shrinking profitability for home flipping is largely due to home prices, which continue to climb nationally, albeit at a slower pace, driving up acquisition costs for investors.

“We’re seeing very low profit margins from home flipping because of the historically high cost of homes,” said Rob Barber, Attom’s CEO. “The initial buy-in for properties that are ideal for flipping, often lower priced homes that may need some work, keeps going up.”

The median price of a home flipped in the second quarter was bought by an investor for $259,700, a record high according to data going back to 2000, according to Attom.

The median sales price of flipped homes was $325,000, unchanged from the first quarter, the firm said.

A chronic shortage of homes on the market and heightened competition for lower-priced properties are also helping drive up investors’ acquisition costs.

Home flipping profits have declined for more than a decade as home prices rose along with the housing market’s recovery from the housing crash in the late 2000s.

Consider, in the fall of 2012, the typical flipped home netted a 62.9% return on investment before expenses, Attom said.

Even as home flipping has become less profitable, such transactions remain widespread.

Some 78,621 single-family homes and condos were flipped in the April-June quarter, accounting for 7.4% of all home sales during the quarter — a slight decline from both the first quarter and the second quarter of 2024, according to Attom.

The U.S. housing market has been in a sales slump since early 2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from pandemic-era lows. Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes sank last year to their lowest level in nearly 30 years. Sales have remained sluggish this year as mortgage rates, until recently, remained elevated.

As home sales have slowed, properties are taking longer to sell. That’s led to a sharply higher inventory of homes on the market, benefiting investors and other home shoppers who can afford to bypass current mortgage rates by paying in cash or tapping home equity gains.

With many aspiring homeowners priced out of the market, real estate investors — whether those looking to buy and rent or home flippers — are taking up a bigger share of U.S. home sales overall.

Some 33% of all homes sold in the second quarter were bought by investors — the highest share in at least five years, according to a report by real estate data provider BatchData.

Between 2020 and 2023, the share of homes bought by investors averaged 18.5%.

All told, investors bought 345,752 homes in the April-June quarter, an increase of 15% from the first quarter, but a 12% decline from the same period last year, the firm said.

Even so, investor-owned homes account for roughly 20% of the nation’s 86 million single-family homes, the firm said.

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房屋翻新 投资回报率 房地产市场 Home Flipping ROI Real Estate Market
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