Fortune | FORTUNE 09月26日
美联储主席称股市估值过高
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美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在 Rhode Island 的讲话中提到股市估值过高,引发市场下跌。银行美银美林研究指出标普500在19项关键指标中处于“统计上昂贵”水平,其中四项估值指标创下历史新高。专家分析认为当前高估值可能反映了现代经济结构变化,如科技、通讯和医疗行业的崛起,以及公司杠杆率降低和盈利模式转变。高估值也可能在2025年后的盈利增长中得到支撑,但仍存在估值过高的风险。

📈美联储主席鲍威尔在 Rhode Island 的讲话中明确指出股市估值过高,直接引发市场反应,特别是标普500指数连续两日下跌。

📊美银美林研究通过分析19项关键指标发现标普500处于“统计上昂贵”水平,其中价格对账面价值比、市值对GDP比、价格对经营现金流比和企业价值对销售额比均创下历史新高。

🌐专家认为当前高估值部分反映了现代经济结构变化,例如科技、通讯和医疗行业的显著增长,以及公司资产和劳动力占比下降,商业模式更偏向轻资产。

📉尽管高估值引发担忧,但专家指出盈利增长可能支撑当前水平,例如自动化和人工智能创新、全球主要经济体持续的财政支持可能推动2025年后的盈利激增。

🤔专家同时强调存在“估值问题”,即当前高估值是否可持续,或需要股价调整或盈利大幅增长来“消化”这些估值水平。

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made the kind of headlines this week that give stock brokers ulcers. After a speech in Rhode Island on Tuesday, the central banker was asked about frothiness in the markets. As Fortune‘s Jim Edwards reported, his reply contained six words that investors didn’t want to hear: “Equity prices are fairly highly valued.” The S&P 500 fell 0.55% on Tuesday and another 0.28% on Wednesday. Still, that’s after a string of record highs throughout the summer.

Bank of America Research followed with a particularly well-time research note on the S&P 500 and its soaring valuations, declaring that the benchmark index is trading at “statistically expensive levels” on 19 out of 20 key metrics. Four of these valuation metrics have just reached all-time highs, noted the team led by Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity strategy.

On virtually all widely observed valuation gauges, Subramanian’s S&P 500 Relative Value Cheat Sheet found a wildly inflated index. The four record metrics are noteworthy. First is the index’s Price-to-Book Value ratio, which has surged to 5.37x, nearly double its historical average of 2.75x. The Market Cap-to-GDP ratio—a popular Warren Buffett indicator—has also climbed to a record 1.8x, far outpacing its typical average of 0.69x. The Price-to-Operating Cash Flow and Enterprise Value to Sales metrics also pressed new peaks, underscoring the unprecedented enthusiasm among investors.

“Buying stocks at these multiples feels bad,” Subramanian wrote in her note, adding that there are good and bad ways “to resolve this seemingly untenable situation.”

A structural or temporary shift?

This feverish pricing has left many market participants wondering if these levels signal the approach of a bubble or reflect profound changes within the composition and business models of the index.

“Perhaps this situation is not untenable,” Subramanian writes, noting the index has evolved considerably since earlier decades. She returned to a thesis about the modern being markedly more asset- and labor-light, with technology, communications, and health care making up a significant portion. Companies are less levered and more predictable, with 80% of S&P 500 debt now fixed and long-term, compared to just 44% in 2007. “Perhaps we should anchor to today’s multiples as the new normal rather than expecting mean reversion to a bygone era.”

Subramanian told Fortune in August that a boost in worker productivity may finally be kickstarting a revolution in equities, and it has to do with this asset-light structure. To that point, the cheat sheet a month later argues that frothy valuations could be justified if an earnings boom materializes, helping the index “grow into” its multiples. History shows that price-to-earnings ratios can compress in two ways: either stock prices fall or corporate profits rise. With broadening profitability, innovations in automation and AI, and persistent fiscal support across major economies, an earnings surge in 2025 and beyond is not out of the question. Should profits outpace expectations, the current valuations could be justified, softening the risks of a sharp reversal. Still, according to Subramanian, there is a “valuation problem” in equities right now.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

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美联储 股市估值 标普500 鲍威尔 美银美林 经济结构 盈利增长 估值问题
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