在Hidden Forces第346期中，Demetri Kofinas与剑桥大学美国历史教授Gary Gerstle对话。Gerstle是新Deal秩序兴衰和最新Neoliberal秩序兴衰的作者和编辑，后者被FT和Prospect评为2022年最佳书籍。对话首小时回顾美国百年历史，涵盖1930年代初崛起至1970年代中后期崩解的新Deal秩序，以及1970年代末至1980年代初兴起至2010年代中后期（奥巴马第二任期和特朗普当选期间）崩解的Neoliberal秩序。第二小时专门探讨Neoliberal秩序的兴衰及其过度行为如何造成当前美国面临的政治、经济和社会危机。两人还推测这一时期的可能走向、新秩序可能的样子、推动其发展的派系以及可能主导其政策理念、优先事项和意识形态框架。

📜 新Deal秩序（1930年代初-1970年代中后期）建立在罗斯福新政基础上，通过国家干预和福利制度应对大萧条，但到1970年代面临通货膨胀、石油危机和财政赤字等多重挑战，逐渐失灵。

💸 Neoliberal秩序（1970年代末-2010年代中后期）强调自由市场、私有化和削减政府干预，以里根、撒切尔等人为代表，初期带来经济增长，但长期导致贫富差距扩大、金融风险累积和社会不公加剧。

🔥 两种秩序的冲突体现在政策辩论中，如医保改革、工会力量和监管力度等，反映了不同社会阶层和利益集团的价值观分歧。

🌍 全球化加速了秩序转变，美国主导的经济体系从工业时代转向服务业主导，但缺乏有效治理导致系统性风险。

🤔 未来秩序可能融合两种模式的元素，如加强市场调节的同时保留必要的社会保障，但具体路径仍需社会广泛讨论和制度创新。

In Episode 346 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Professor of American History at the University of Cambridge, Gary Gerstle. Dr. Gerstle is the author and editor of more than ten books, including the “Rise and Fall of the New Deal Order,” and his most recent, “The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order,” which was chosen as a Best Book of 2022 by the Financial Times and Prospect Magazine.

Gerstle and Kofinas spend the first hour of their conversation discussing the last one hundred years of American history, which spans two political orders—that of the New Deal Order, which ascends in the early 1930s and comes apart in the mid-to-late 1970s and the Neoliberal Order, which begins its rise in the late 1970s-to-early-80s and starts to disintegrate in the mid-2010s during Obama’s second term in office and the election of Donald Trump.

The second hour of their conversation is devoted exclusively to understanding the rise and fall of the Neoliberal Order and how the excesses of that period have created the conditions for the political, economic, and social crises that are currently gripping the nation. Gerstle and Kofinas also speculate about what may come out of this period, what a new order could look like, what the various factions are that will drive it forward, and what policy ideas, priorities, and ideological frameworks are likely to animate it.  

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Episode Recorded on 12/26/2023