India’s power generation capacity during 5MFY26 (period ending August 2025) increased by over 20 GW, out of which more than 85%, or 18 GW, was solar power, says SBI Capital Markets Limited (SBICAPS).
The research firm projects the country to add more than 45 GW of solar capacity within FY26. It will be a growth over the 24.5 GW that the country installed in 2024 (see Utility-Scale Solar Powers India's Record 24.5 GW PV Installations in 2024).
Ground-mounted solar currently makes up the lion’s share of total PV installations in the country, with 76%. It is followed by rooftop solar with 17%, 4% off-grid, and 3% by the solar component of hybrid projects.
Going forward, utility-scale solar auctions by Renewable Energy Implementation Agencies (REIAs) will continue to lead. However, the installation boost will be backed by rooftop solar and open access solar additions, which the research analysis wing of the State Bank of India (SBI) calls the ‘avenues of effervescence’. It singles out the Pradhan Mantri Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana (PMSGMBY) as a major driver with its 30 GW potential (see India Eyeing 30 GW Rooftop Solar Capacity With New Scheme).
The government’s recent move of lowering Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 12% to 5% will also bring down project costs as well as maintenance costs, making a compelling business case for this technology (see India Slashes GST On Solar PV Cells From 12% To 5%).
In terms of solar PV manufacturing, SBICAPS believes the government is on the right track to ensure self-reliance for the domestic industry, thanks to the polysilicon-to-module Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme. The latest plan to implement an Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) List-III for wafers is a welcome move, especially since it will be imposed 3 years down the line. By then, India should have ample capacities of its own (see India’s MNRE Proposes ALMM List-III For Solar Wafers).
Among the manufacturers that are expected to have at least 10 GW of installed domestic integrated cell and module capacity by FY28 are Adani, Avaada, Indosol Solar, Premier Energies, Reliance Industries, Vikram Solar, and Waaree.
SBICAPS analysts also see the Indian market, with over 100 GW installed module production capacity, racing to build high-power modules with over 700 W output and over 23% efficiency. While TOPCon and heterojunction (HJT) modules gain popularity here, manufacturers are also pitching application-specific modules to differentiate themselves.
“The constant race for quality, innovation, low-cost, and ease of use will keep Indian panel makers amongst global leaders,” according to the analysts.
In a recent report, SBICAPS forecast India’s solar PV additions to grow to between 85 GW and 90 GW within the next 2 financial years, while FY2025 deployments are expected to grow to 30 GW (see SBICAPS Forecasts Up To 90 GW New Solar Additions For India By FY2027).
