在Hidden Forces第374期中，Demetri Kofinas与J. Doyne Farmer博士对话。Farmer博士是复杂系统科学家和企业家，开创了混沌理论、复杂性科学、人工生命和可穿戴计算等理论及应用。我们正处在一个复杂性增加、技术变革加速和全球互联的时代，这带来了前所未有的机遇与风险。成功应对这些变化将极大依赖经济模型的质量，因为这些变化——自动化、数字化、人口结构变化和金融市场趋势——都根植于经济及其支撑系统的网络。借助大数据和更强大的计算机，我们首次能将复杂性科学应用于经济活动，构建出在全球经济和金融市场方面，在真实性和预测力上远超历史的模型。

🔍 农场博士是复杂系统科学领域的先驱，在混沌理论、复杂性科学、人工生命和可穿戴计算等方面做出了开创性贡献，这些理论为理解现代经济变革提供了基础。

🌐 当前时代的特点是复杂性增加、技术变革加速和全球互联，这些趋势带来了巨大的机遇和风险，对经济模型的质量提出了前所未有的要求。

💡 利用大数据和强大计算机，复杂性科学首次被应用于经济活动，能够构建比历史上有过的任何模型都更真实、预测力更强的全球经济和金融市场模型。

📊 第一个小时介绍了复杂性科学及其在经济学中的应用，讨论了混沌和波动性，并比较了基于主体的模拟与标准经济模型的解释和预测能力。

🔄 第二个小时探讨了将经济视为生态网络和一系列新陈代谢过程的经济学框架，并将第一小时的教训应用于投资风格、风险管理、技术颠覆和政策制定等具体经济问题。

In Episode 374 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with J. Doyne Farmer. Dr. Farmer is a complex systems scientist and entrepreneur who pioneered many of the theories and applications that we discuss today, including chaos theory, complexity science, artificial life, and wearable computing.

We live in an age of increasing complexity, accelerating technological change, and global connectivity that holds more promise and peril than arguably any time in human history. Successfully navigating these changes will depend immeasurably on the quality of our economic models because, at their heart, all these changes—the changes associated with trends in automation, digitization, demographics, and financial markets—are rooted in the economy and the network of systems that keep us alive.

For the first time, using big data and ever-more-powerful computers, we are now able to apply complexity science to economic activity, building realistic models of the global economy and financial markets that promise to vastly outperform in terms of verisimilitude and predictive power anything that we have seen in human history.

This episode is divided into two parts. The first hour is meant to provide you with a foundational understanding of complexity science and its application to economics. We discuss chaos and volatility and compare the explanatory and predictive power of agent-based simulations to the standard economic model.

The second hour is an exploration of economic frameworks that treat the economy as an ecological network and series of metabolic processes. We also apply the lessons of the first hour to specific economic and financial questions related to investment styles, risk management, technological disruption, and policymaking.

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Episode Recorded on 08/02/2024