在《隐藏力量》第412期中，Demetri Kofinas与金融记者、经济历史学家Paul Blustein探讨了美元在国际冲击和危机面前的历史韧性，以及美元霸权能否在国际资本和贸易体系崩溃后生存。节目首先追溯了美元如何成为全球贸易、储蓄和投资的实际货币，以及华盛顿的最新政策变化及其在海外的反响可能对美元的未来价值和地位产生的影响。第二小时则推测在贸易保护主义加剧、国际合作破裂以及外国投资者可能对美国领导力和资本市场的可靠性和稳定性失去信心的情况下，美元霸权的未来将如何发展。

💼 美元成为全球实际货币的历史轨迹：节目详细回顾了美元如何通过其经济和政治影响力，逐渐成为国际贸易、储蓄和投资的主要货币。这一过程涉及多个历史事件和政策决策，如布雷顿森林体系的建立和后冷战时期的全球化和金融自由化。

🌍 华盛顿政策变化及其国际影响：Paul Blustein分析了近年来美国政府的政策调整，如贸易政策、货币政策以及财政支出，这些政策如何被国际社会解读，并探讨了这些变化对美元地位和价值的潜在影响。

📉 外国投资者对美国领导力和资本市场的信心：节目重点讨论了外国投资者对美国政治稳定性和经济可持续性的担忧，特别是在贸易保护主义抬头、国际合作减弱的背景下，这种信心缺失可能如何动摇美元霸权。

🛡️ 美元霸权的未来挑战：Demetri Kofinas和Paul Blustein推测，在全球化和地缘政治格局变化的背景下，美元霸权可能面临多重挑战，包括新兴经济体的崛起、其他国际货币的竞争以及全球贸易体系的重构。

🔮 国际资本和贸易体系的崩溃：节目探讨了如果国际资本和贸易体系崩溃，美元霸权是否能够继续维持其地位。Paul Blustein认为，美元的长期生存将取决于美国是否能够维持其经济和金融领导力，以及全球是否能够形成新的货币体系。

In Episode 412 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with financial journalist and economic historian, Paul Blustein about the U.S. Dollar’s historical resiliency in the face of international shocks and crises, and whether Dollar hegemony can survive the breakdown of the international capital and trading system.

In the first hour, Kofinas and Blustein trace how the U.S. dollar became the de facto currency for global trade, savings, and investment and what recent policy shifts in Washington—and how they have been perceived abroad—may mean for the future value and status of the Greenback.

The second hour builds on this foundation as Paul and Demetri speculate about what the future holds for dollar hegemony in a world characterized by growing trade protectionism, a breakdown in international cooperation, and a potentially irreparable loss of confidence among foreign investors in U.S. leadership and in the strength and reliability of U.S. capital markets.

This could not be a timelier conversation about a subject whose ramifications will continue to play out over many years if not decades to come.

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Episode Recorded on 04/23/2025