《百年转折期》第四集探讨当前全球经济、政治和地缘政治的重塑。Demetri Kofinas与Grant Williams邀请专家讨论特朗普政府的经济贸易策略、孤立中国、新货币体系、安全资产搜索及全球权力重组等议题。Russell Napier分析三十年来主导全球增长的经济、货币和全球贸易及安全秩序的终结，及其对经济、国家安全、社会凝聚力、投资和财富保存的深远影响。此外，节目还讨论投资者如何应对资本加速回流、资本管制、长期金融压制等挑战。

📚 Russell Napier作为经济史学家和《固地Newsletter》作者，剖析了三十年来主导全球增长的经济、货币和全球贸易及安全秩序的终结，指出其变化对经济与国家安全、社会凝聚力、投资和财富保存的深远影响。

🇺🇸 Demetri Kofinas和Grant Williams探讨了特朗普政府的经济和贸易策略，特别是其对中国等国的贸易限制政策，及其在全球秩序重塑中的作用。

🇨🇳 节目深入讨论了全球对中国的孤立努力，包括技术限制、贸易壁垒和地缘政治施压，及其对国际关系和全球经济格局的潜在后果。

💰 新货币体系的创建被视为应对现有金融秩序挑战的关键，包括美元地位的削弱和替代性货币联盟的探索，可能引发货币战争和全球资本流动重组。

🛡️ 新安全资产的搜索成为各国关注的焦点，黄金、加密货币和特定国家债券被讨论为潜在避风港，但投资者需警惕高波动性和监管风险。

🌍 全球权力正经历重大转移，新兴经济体崛起，传统西方影响力下降，这可能导致地缘政治冲突加剧，尤其是中美之间的紧张关系。

🚨 中美冲突风险上升，从贸易战到科技战再到潜在军事对抗，投资者需评估相关风险并制定应对策略，包括多元化投资和准备非传统安全资产。

📉 投资者需为资本加速回流做好准备，包括企业利润汇回母国、跨国资金撤离新兴市场等，这可能引发市场波动和资产价格调整。

🔒 资本管制的可能性增加，各国政府可能为控制资本外流而加强监管，这影响国际投资流动和财富配置，需关注各国政策动向。

📊 长期金融压制将使财富保存优先于追求高回报，低利率环境、负资产收益和通胀压力下，投资者需调整策略，转向保值而非增值。

Episode 415 is the third episode in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with some of the smartest and most plugged-in people they know to help them navigate the once-in-a-century economic, political, and geopolitical reordering that is currently underway.

In this episode Kofinas and Williams speak with economic historian, author of “The Solid Ground Newsletter” and Keeper of the Library of Mistakes, Russell Napier about the end of the economic, monetary, and global trading & security order that has been the largest single driver of global growth over the last thirty years.

The consequences of the changes discussed for economic and national security, social cohesion, investment, and wealth preservation are nothing short of tectonic. Points of discussion include:

1. The Trump administration’s economic and trade strategy

2. Efforts to isolate China

3. The creation of new monetary systems

4. The search for new safe assets

5. The realignment of global power

6. The escalating risk of war with China

There is also a long and detailed discussion about how investors can position themselves for:

1. The accelerating repatriation of capital flows

2. The onset of capital controls

3. A prolonged period of financial repression in which wealth preservation will take precedence over making money and chasing outsized financial returns.

If you want early access to this conversation, subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

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Episode Recorded on 04/25/2025