在Hidden Forces第437期中，Demetri Kofinas与Marvin Barth探讨了全球经济与权力格局的变化。Barth提出了“本地化”、“存在即信念”和“全球熵”等概念，分析了这些主题框架如何帮助我们理解增长、通胀预期、利率、新兴市场表现、货币政策局限性以及美国软硬实力的变化。他还讨论了西方霸权的三大支柱——神话、经济主导和军事优势——为何已达到顶峰，以及新兴力量如何通过非对称战争挑战西方主导地位，提供替代性社会政治和经济模式。此外，他们探讨了全球体系快速瓦解或形成双极秩序的可能性，并讨论了投资组合构建、美元角色及稳定币国际采用的重要性。

🌍 "本地化"概念强调区域经济独立性增强，全球供应链重构，各国更注重本土生产和消费，导致全球市场碎片化。

💡 "存在即信念"指出市场行为者对经济前景的预期会自我实现，心理因素对资产价格和宏观经济表现产生显著影响。

📉 "全球熵"描述了国际体系无序度增加的现象，表现为地缘政治冲突加剧、多边合作受阻，以及经济和金融体系脆弱性上升。

🇺🇸 美国软硬实力减弱体现在全球影响力下降，盟友离心倾向加剧，以及新兴经济体挑战现有国际秩序的能力增强。

🛡️ 非对称战争策略被新兴力量广泛采用，通过网络攻击、信息战等手段削弱西方技术优势，迫使西方调整全球战略。

🔄 新兴经济体正构建替代性全球治理框架，提出不同于西方资本主义和民主的模式，可能重塑国际规则和标准。

💰 稳定币的广泛采用可能改变货币体系格局，减少对美元的依赖，并推动去中心化金融发展。

📊 投资组合需考虑全球体系多极化趋势，分散风险，并关注新兴市场和技术创新带来的机遇。

In Episode 437 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Marvin Barth, founder of Thematic Markets and former Chief Economist for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury, who previously served at the Federal Reserve and the Bank for International Settlements and has led global macro and FX strategy on both the sell side and the buy side.

Marvin Barth and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation unpacking his concepts of “localization,” “being is believing,” and “global entropy,” and how these thematic frameworks can help us understand changes in growth, inflation expectations, interest rates, the underperformance of emerging markets, the limits of monetary policy, and the weakening of American soft and hard power.

The second hour begins with a conversation about the three pillars of Western primacy—mythology, economic dominance, and military superiority—and why Marvin believes that each of these has already peaked. They discuss how rivals to America’s Post-World War II Liberal Order have used asymmetric warfare to thwart the West’s dominance and are now in position to offer something radically different—a new sociopolitical and economic model that can rival Western capitalism and democracy.

The two also explore scenarios ranging from a rapid dissolution of the global system to the managed emergence of a new bipolar order with two sets of economic and political ideologies, supply networks, and technological standards. This includes a broad discussion about portfolio construction, the role of the dollar, and how the broad international adoption of stablecoins could prove to be one of the most consequential stories of the coming decades.

Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you’d like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you enjoyed today’s episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by:

• Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed

• Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify

• Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas

Episode Recorded on 08/26/2025