📚 社区共识的构建：本文的核心目的是在LessWrong社区内建立并巩固对《若有AI问世，人人皆可亡》（IABIED）一书的支持共识。这有助于让所有成员，特别是新用户，了解社区普遍认同该书提出的关键论点，即在未来一到两年内，超级智能AI的出现可能带来高达15%以上的、导致全人类短期内灭亡的风险。

🌍 外部信号与社区认同：该声明不仅服务于内部的知识同步，也旨在向外部传递一个明确的信号，即LessWrong社区——由Eliezer Yudkowsky创立的平台——认真对待AI风险。对于外部观察者而言，这将是衡量该书被社区重视程度的一个重要指标。

💡 与CAIS声明的类比及价值：文章将此举与2023年CAIS的AI风险声明进行类比，强调了这类“相互知识构建”声明的价值。尽管CAIS声明看似显而易见，但它成功记录了学术界和工业界广泛的共识。同样，LessWrong的IABIED支持声明，即使并非所有成员都完美同意每一个细节，也能有效记录和传达社区对AI生存风险的普遍关注和认同。

Published on September 23, 2025 5:51 PM GMT

Mutual-Knowledgeposting

The purpose of this post is to build mutual knowledge that many (most?) of us on LessWrong support If Anyone Builds It, Anyone Dies.

Inside of LW, not every user is a long-timer who's already seen consistent signals of support for these kinds of claims. A post like this could make the difference in strengthening vs. weakening the perception of how much everyone knows that everyone knows (...) that everyone supports the book.

Externally, people who wonder how seriously the book is being taken may check LessWrong and look for an indicator of how much support the book has from the community that Eliezer Yudkowsky originally founded.

The LessWrong frontpage, where high-voted posts are generally based on "whether users want to see more of a kind of content", wouldn't by default map a large amount of internal support for IABIED into a frontpage that signals support, and more like an active discussion of various aspects of the book, including interesting & valid nitpicks and disagreements.

Statement of Support

I support If Anyone Builds It, Anyone Dies.

That is:

I think the book's thesis is basically right — that if anyone builds superintelligent AI in the next decade or two, it'll have a terrifyingly high (15%+) chance of causing everyone to die in short orderI think the world where the book becomes an extremely popular bestseller is much better on expectation than the world where it doesn'tI generally respect MIRI's work and consider it underreported and underrated

Similarity to the CAIS Statement on AI Risk

The famous 2023 Center for AI Safety Statement on AI risk reads: "Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war."

I'm extremely happy that this statement exists and has so many prominent signatories. While many people considered it too obvious and trivial to need stating, many others who weren't following the situation closely (or are motivated to think otherwise) had assumed there wasn't this level of consensus on the content of the statement across academia and industry.

Notably, the statement wasn't a total consensus that everyone signed, or that everyone who signed agreed with passionately, yet it still documented a meaningfully widespread consensus, and was a hugely valuable exercise. I think LW might benefit from having a similar kind of mutual-knowledge-building Statement on this occasion.