Mexico’s vast solar potential and sharply falling battery costs could make it a global solar ‘superpower’, according to a new Ember report. This ambitious scenario can be achieved with 165 GW of solar and 500 GWh of storage that could deliver 58% of annual power and 82% clean electricity overall, cutting gas use to just 3% and fully displacing imported gas from the US. This would require all solar systems to mandatorily use batteries.
Further up, 190 GW of solar with 600 GWh of battery storage could supply up to 90% of the country’s electricity needs, with 6% excess supply, assuming no grid congestion constraints.
In the medium term, solar’s share in Mexico’s national electricity mix can increase up to 45% by 2030, up from 6.6% in 2023, with 36 GW solar and 30 GWh battery capacity. With this, one of the world’s top 20 countries for solar potential, Mexico can bring down its reliance on imported gas from the US by around 20%.
Going up to 100% is also possible, which will displace all imported gas from the US from its power generation, according to Ember’s analysis of historical data, including hourly solar radiation and hourly demand data for the last 18 years across 16 locations. This would require 260 GW of solar and 950 GWh of storage, with 23% excess supply.
At the end of 2024, Mexico’s total operational solar PV capacity stood at 11.9 GW, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. The country had pledged to expand the share of solar and wind energy to exceed a combined 40 GW by 2030 at COP27 (see Mexico Targets Over 40 GW Wind & Solar Capacity By 2030).
For a 100 MW industrial facility, 600 MW of solar and 1,700 MWh of storage can alone reliably supply round-the-clock (RTC) power, including a factory or data center, as per its analysis of solar radiation data for 16 locations across the country.
Its modeling showed that the sunniest locations in the country, such as Ciudad Juárez, which had over 300 sunny days annually, could achieve a constant supply of solar power with no shortfalls. Even on severe shortfall days, solar and storage are expected to supply a full 14 hours.
“By harnessing its world-class solar resources and pairing them with increasingly affordable batteries, Mexico could power its future with homegrown clean energy instead of imported gas,” said Latin America Energy Analyst at Ember, Wilmar Suarez.
Nevertheless, this sunny future will come at a cost as Ember estimates that building 36 GW of solar and 30 GWh of storage in Mexico could be 50% more expensive than the global average. Currently, solar costs in the country are already 38% above the global average.
Ember believes the country will need to close the cost gap with global benchmarks for solar and storage installations. It can achieve this by accelerating deployments to match the current pace of Brazil or Chile. It can also explore competitive auctions for large-scale projects, streamlining permitting and transmission expansion, implementing lower-cost financing tools, and adopting industrial policies to strengthen domestic supply chains.
Suarez added, “With the right investment and policy support, Mexico can close the gap with global installation costs to unlock its full solar potential and strengthen its energy independence.”
The complete report titled Falling battery costs can unleash Mexico’s full solar potential and boost energy security is available for free download on Ember’s website.
