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- President Donald Trump's H-1B visa crackdown pressures Big Tech and IT outsourcing giants.Amazon, Google, and Infosys face staffing challenges amid geopolitical and economic issues.Firms may shift hiring to Canada and Latin America to mitigate H-1B cost impacts, analysts say.
President Donald Trump's H-1B visa crackdown is putting more pressure on Big Tech and IT outsourcing giants, which are already grappling with tariff threats and other geopolitical turbulence.
That's according to analysts at TD Cowen who assessed the damage from Trump's new H1-B visa fee over a frantic weekend.
For companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and major IT services providers such as Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, and Cognizant — some of the largest H-1B sponsors — the new rules could upend staffing models. Amazon and AWS alone secured more than 12,000 approvals in the 2025 fiscal year to date, according to USCIS data compiled by TD Cowen.
The changes come at a precarious moment. The IT services sector already faces macroeconomic uncertainty, slowing growth, and pressure from generative AI adoption. TD Cowen analysts warned the new fee could make the program "uneconomic" for many users, forcing firms to rethink hiring.
If Trump's new $100,000 fee is applied across the sector's 2024 H1-B approval base, the costs could run into the billions of dollars for top sponsors, although exemptions tied to national security or other carve-outs may soften the blow.
"When it rains, it pours," Bryan Bergin, an analyst at TD Cowen, wrote in a note to clients on Sunday. "This is among the last things that Services sector sentiment needed amid persistent cyclical pressure weighing on growth from geopolitical/macro uncertainty and structural concerns caused by generative AI."
"It's also a detriment to Big Tech and certain financial services companies that are among the largest H-1B program users," he added.
Outsourcing firms, including Cognizant, Infosys, and TCS, count an estimated 25% to 30% of their US workforce as visa holders, according to the data compiled by TD Cowen.
"H-1B is the largest program; thus, we estimate over 25% of these vendors' current US workforce are H-1B," the analysts wrote.
Industry players are expected to respond by accelerating nearshoring to Canada and Latin America, pushing more onshore hiring, and exploring greater offshore delivery, similar to pandemic-era remote strategies, according to TD Cowen.
Yet the cost shock and added complexity could weigh on margins for firms that depend heavily on H-1Bs, they wrote.
Not all companies will be equally exposed. Digital engineering firms like EPAM Systems and Globant, along with business process management vendors such as ExlService Holdings, have minimal reliance on H-1B workers, the analysts wrote.
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