Fortune | FORTUNE 09月23日
关税影响就业:前经济顾问谈成本上升与招聘放缓
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前美国总统经济顾问加里·科恩指出,关税正在推高企业运营成本,这可能导致招聘困难。企业因无法轻易转嫁成本给消费者,倾向于削减人力成本以维持利润。尽管白宫表示特朗普政府的关税政策促进了国内投资和就业,但科技行业的裁员潮以及近期新增就业人数的下降,都显示出就业市场的严峻性。科恩认为,当前就业市场的疲软,特别是对年轻毕业生的影响,是企业从疫情期间的“囤积劳动力”转向积极管理成本的体现,导致求职难度增加。

📈 **关税推高企业成本,影响招聘决策**:前经济顾问加里·科恩表示,关税导致企业运营成本上升,企业为维持利润,在难以转嫁成本给消费者的情况下,倾向于通过削减人力成本来应对。这直接影响了企业的招聘意愿和能力。

📉 **就业市场显现疲软迹象**:文章引用数据显示,近期新增就业人数远低于前几个月,同时科技巨头如谷歌、微软等公司进行了大规模裁员。这表明整体就业市场正在经历一个放缓或收紧的阶段,求职难度增加。

🎓 **年轻求职者面临更大挑战**:科恩特别提到,新毕业的大学生和年轻群体在当前环境下找工作尤为困难。这与疫情期间企业为留住人才而积极招聘形成鲜明对比,反映了经济环境的变化和企业招聘策略的调整。

💼 **企业策略转变:从囤积劳动力到成本管理**:科恩解释说,企业从疫情期间对人才短缺的担忧,转向了对成本的严格控制。劳动力成本是企业可控的最大开销之一,因此成为企业削减开支的首要目标。

📊 **经济数据与市场感受的差异**:尽管官方数据显示整体裁员率仍然较低,且美联储通过降息来刺激经济,但实际感受是找工作的难度在增加。这表明宏观经济指标与个体求职者的体验之间可能存在脱节。

President Donald Trump’s former economic adviser said tariffs are raising the cost of doing business—and it may just be making your job search harder.

Gary Cohn, who served as director of the National Economic Council during the first Trump administration, said businesses are feeling the insecurity of rising input costs thanks to tariffs. And because companies feel they can’t raise prices for consumers, they turn to what they can control. 

“The one lever they can pull to make sure they keep their margins intact is they can cut down on the cost of labor,” Cohn said in an interview on Face the Nation.

White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement to Fortune that President Trump’s tariffs have led to trillions of dollars of investment for building in the U.S. and hiring Americans.

“The Administration remains focused on implementing a full suite of supply-side growth policies like tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance to reduce cost and restore the economic dynamism that Americans experienced during President Trump’s first term.”

Some of the biggest tech companies in the world have ramped up layoffs this year including Google, Microsoft, and Meta. Overall, just under 90,000 tech workers have been laid off this year alone at 204 companies, according to Layoffs.fyi

Cohn, now the vice chairman of IBM, said these job cuts have already started to affect the economy. Recent jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed only 22,000 jobs were added in August, down from 79,000 in July. Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to try to stem the tide and bolster the economy.

To be sure, Fed chairman Jerome Powell said in a press conference following the Fed meeting last week that the layoff rate is still low overall. Yet, finding a job is getting harder, especially for Gen Z recent graduates, because companies are putting the brakes on hiring. Following last week’s Fed meeting, Powell acknowledged, “kids coming out of college and younger people, minorities, are having a hard time finding jobs.” One 25-year-old even walked around Wall Street with a poster lobbying for an entry-level position after having applied to more than 1,000 jobs online.

This trend marks a reversal from the COVID years when many companies went on a hiring frenzy, said Cohn. Now, these same companies are also letting their labor force decline naturally as workers retire.

“We came out of a tough situation in COVID where companies were actually afraid about being able to attract and retain people, so they were hoarding labor,” Cohn said. “So we went from a hoarding labor situation to a situation today where companies are being very aggressive about managing their expenses, and the one expense they can manage is the cost of labor.”

While Americans struggle with longer job searches, companies are doing just fine, Cohn added. Corporate revenues rose 6.3% in the second quarter while profits jumped double digits, but hard numbers and anecdotal data point to a degrading job market. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee have signaled at least two more rate cuts could be on the table for the year, which could help tackle the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate. 

“It may be temporary, it may be quite temporary, but the reality is, we have seen the job market degrade,” said Cohn.

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关税 就业 经济 招聘 劳动力成本 Tariffs Employment Economy Hiring Labor Costs
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