Fortune | FORTUNE 09月22日
黄金与股市齐创新高:投资者情绪复杂
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近期,黄金价格和股市双双创下历史新高,这通常预示着截然不同的市场情绪。黄金的上涨常与投资者避险情绪相关,而股市创新高则通常是乐观的信号。德意志银行分析师指出,当前市场出现了一种矛盾的现象:投资者既对股市持乐观态度,又对潜在的下行风险感到担忧。这种复杂的心态可能源于对通胀持续、贸易摩擦、政府停摆以及AI股票泡沫的担忧,促使投资者在寻求高回报的同时,也寻求黄金这一避险资产。

📈 黄金与股市同步创新高,反映出市场情绪的矛盾性。黄金作为传统避险资产,其价格飙升通常与投资者对经济前景的担忧有关;而股市屡创新高则显示出对经济增长的乐观预期。这种背离现象表明投资者在风险规避和追求高回报之间摇摆不定。

📉 投资者对多重风险感到担忧,是推动黄金上涨的关键因素之一。这些风险包括美国通胀可能持续高于目标水平,以及潜在的贸易关税审查(如医药和半导体行业),政府可能在月底出现停摆,以及经济数据(如非农就业数据)显示出的放缓迹象。这些因素共同促成了投资者对下行风险的担忧。

💡 对AI股票泡沫的担忧与历史上的科技泡沫相比较。有观点将当前AI股票的火热与1999-2000年的互联网泡沫相提并论。在互联网泡沫破裂前,黄金价格曾大幅下跌,因为投资者对科技股过度乐观。然而,当前黄金价格处于相对高位,与历史上的高繁荣时期有所不同。

📊 尽管存在担忧,但市场仍存在上行潜力。德意志银行的分析师认为,尽管存在诸多下行风险,但也有很多事件可能朝着积极的方向发展,为市场提供上行空间。这表明,尽管存在不确定性,但投资者也看到了潜在的机遇。

    Gold hit a new record high—something that normally happens when investors are fearful and seeking a safe haven. But the stock markets also hit a new record high—normally a signal of optimism. The reason? Investors are both bullish and afraid, Deutsche Bank says. 

The price of gold hit another record high today, which Deutsche Bank thinks is a bit weird because stock market investors are optimistic right now, and gold usually only rises this dramatically during periods of fear.

The Comex gold futures contract hit $3,757.60 per ounce; the S&P 500 closed up 0.49% on Friday, hitting a new all-time high at 6,664.36. S&P futures are down 0.22% this morning, premarket.

Investors are both bullish on equities as well as being afraid that there are major downside risks, Deutsche’s Henry Allen says.

“Whilst gold prices have many drivers, one is the perception that it operates as a haven that investors buy in times of fear. After all, it doesn’t pay a dividend or a coupon, and over the very long term, it’s struggled to compete with other asset returns. This September, gold prices exceeded their previous inflation-adjusted peak from January 1980. That was a time when the US was heading into recession, driven by a huge monetary tightening by the Fed under Paul Volcker, aiming to get inflation down. So historically, high gold prices haven’t exactly been associated with rampant optimism,” Allen told clients in a note this morning.

So what are investors afraid of?

“U.S. inflation is priced to linger above target in the next few years, which is far from ‘perfect,’” Allen wrote. “That links up with lingering tariff fears, with reviews still due into sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. Prediction markets think a US government shutdown at the end of the month is increasingly likely. And markets are clearly worried about the payrolls slowdown too, hence rapid rate cuts are priced in. So the reality is there are lots of downside risks priced in, offering plenty of scope for events to resolve on the upside from a market perspective.”

JPMorgan’s Fabio Bassi and his team are also long on gold, according to a note seen by Fortune.

There is also a lot of chat about AI stocks being in a bubble, akin to the 1999-2000 dot-com boom. Prior to that bubble burtsing, the price of gold sank because investors were, notoriously, over-optimistic about tech stocks.   

“A key difference with that period is gold prices were then around multi-decade lows in real terms. That would be more consistent with an environment of high exuberance, where people want to own assets with stronger returns, rather than gold which doesn’t pay a dividend,” Allen said.

Here’s a snapshot of the markets globally this morning:

    S&P 500 futures were down 0.19% this morning. The index closed up 0.49% in its last session, hitting a new all-time high at 6,664.36.STOXX Europe 600 was flat in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was flat in early trading.Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.99%.China’s CSI 300 was up 0.46%.The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.68%.India’s Nifty 50 was down 0.21% before the end of the session.Bitcoin fell to $112.7K.

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黄金 股市 投资者情绪 避险资产 AI股票 通货膨胀 Gold Stock Market Investor Sentiment Safe Haven AI Stocks Inflation
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