Fortune | FORTUNE 09月21日
美联储主席鲍威尔在首次与米兰会面中展现领导力,建立广泛共识
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在美联储最近一次公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)会议上,主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔成功凝聚了广泛共识,以11-1的投票结果决定降息25个基点。此次会议前,市场普遍猜测存在更大分歧,甚至认为米兰可能成为第三位主张大幅降息的反对者。然而,鲍威尔的领导能力使得原本可能分裂的委员会得以统一。前纽约联储主席杜德利认为鲍威尔牢牢掌控着FOMC,并指出即使是倾向于维持利率不变的官员也遵从了主席的意见。此外,鲍威尔在会后记者会上明确表示,对于大幅降息的提议“根本没有广泛支持”,并解释了等待观察经济数据再做决定的审慎态度。他还淡化了米兰提出的将“温和的长期利率”作为央行第三个独立目标的重要性,重申了价格稳定和最大化就业是首要任务。尽管面临白宫的压力,鲍威尔及其团队的独立性得到了外界的肯定。

💡 鲍威尔展现领导力,成功促成11-1的广泛共识以25个基点降息:与会前市场对分歧的预期不同,美联储主席鲍威尔在首次与新任委员米兰的会议中,成功建立起一个强大的共识基础。尽管米兰被视为可能持不同意见的代表,但最终投票结果显示,包括此前曾有异议的沃勒和鲍曼在内的多数委员都支持了降息25个基点的决定,凸显了鲍威尔在引导FOMC决策过程中的影响力。

🛡️ 独立性得到肯定,鲍威尔在压力下坚持审慎决策:尽管美国总统不断施压要求大幅降息,鲍威尔在会后记者会上的表现表明他并未屈服。他明确表示,对半个百分点的降息提议“根本没有广泛支持”,并解释了等待观察经济数据(如关税、通胀和劳动力市场)演变的审慎理由。这种坚持独立决策的立场,以及鲍曼和沃勒等被任命的官员也未完全遵从总统的意愿,赢得了外界对其“诚信、致力于美联储使命以及维持央行独立性的重要性”的赞誉。

⚖️ 鲍威尔驳斥将“温和的长期利率”设为独立第三目标,重申核心使命:面对米兰提出的将“温和的长期利率”作为央行独立第三目标的说法,鲍威尔明确表示,美联储长期以来并未将其视为需要独立行动的目标,而是价格稳定和最大化就业两大任务的自然结果。他强调,目前没有考虑将此目标以不同方式纳入考量,重申了美联储的核心使命,并展现了对政策框架的坚定维护。

Jerome Powell’s first meeting with Stephen Miran produced an unexpectedly broad majority to lower rates by a quarter point, a sign of the Fed chairman’s ability to build a consensus.

Before Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, some on Wall Street saw deeper division, with Miran representing a potential third dissenting vote for a half-point cut.

But instead, governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman went with their fellow policymakers, after dissenting at the prior meeting, leaving Miran as the outlier in the 11-1 vote.

In a Bloomberg column on Thursday, former New York Fed President Bill Dudley said “Powell is firmly in control” of the FOMC. He added that central bankers who were inclined to keep rates steady deferred to the Fed chair and agreed to cut.

Meanwhile, Bowman and Waller, who both were appointed by Trump, refused to follow the president’s lead for much steeper rate cuts.

“Their actions demonstrate integrity, commitment to the Fed’s mission and the importance of sustaining the central bank’s independence,” Dudley wrote.

Others on Wall Street also highlighted the vote margin, especially given Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook and his appointment of Miran, who hasn’t stepped down from his role as a White House economic adviser.

Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, said in a note Wednesday that the 11-1 decision provided a greater sense of unanimity than what was expected.

And Susan Hill, senior portfolio manager and head of government liquidity group at Federated Hermes, said in a note that while she expects continued pressure from the White House, “at least for now most seem to have stood behind Powell, and I’m sure that played at least a part in how comfortable and confident he seemed during the press conference.”

Powell also seemed to push back significantly against Miran and the White House during his post-meeting remarks.

When asked how seriously a half-point cut was considered, Powell said “there wasn’t widespread support at all” for it.

He also expressed no regrets on the timing of the cut—the first since December—despite Trump’s relentless pressure and complaints about him being too late.

“I think we were right to wait and see how tariffs and inflation and the labor market evolved,” Powell said.

The Fed chief similarly downplayed Miran’s recent mention of the third mandate for the central bank to target moderate long-term rates.

Officials have previously maintained that the two other mandates for price stability and maximum employment will result in moderate long-term rates as a byproduct.

“We haven’t thought about that for a very long time as a third mandate that requires independent action,” Powell said Wednesday. “So that’s where that is. And there’s no thought, as far as I’m concerned, there’s no thought of considering that we somehow incorporate that in as something in a different way.”

For his part, Miran told CNBC on Friday that he was merely pointing out what’s in the law when it comes to the three Fed mandates.

He also acknowledged being an outlier at his first meeting but that he would have more time to make his case at subsequent meetings.

Before joining the administration, Miran had previously called for changes at the Fed that would erode its independence and said its consensus-driven approach should give way to more robust debates.

But when asked about his first FOMC meeting—including his dynamic with Cook, who is fighting Trump’s attempt to fire her—Miran described a warm reception.

“Everybody was extremely welcoming and extremely kind and extremely cordial. And it was a very collegial environment, and I really appreciated that—and that includes Governor Cook,” he told CNBC. “Everyone has been very nice to me, and I’m very appreciative of that.”

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美联储 鲍威尔 FOMC 降息 货币政策 央行独立性 Federal Reserve Powell FOMC Interest Rate Cut Monetary Policy Central Bank Independence
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