Fortune | FORTUNE 09月20日
扎克伯格谈AI投资:宁愿过头也不愿错过
index_new5.html
../../../zaker_core/zaker_tpl_static/wap/tpl_guoji1.html

 

Meta CEO马克·扎克伯格承认,AI领域的快速发展和巨额投资可能形成泡沫,并存在市场崩溃的风险。然而,他认为,相比于错过这一划时代的技术变革,过度投资的风险是可以接受的。扎克伯格将AI基础设施建设类比于过去的铁路和互联网泡沫,指出这些泡沫的形成源于过度负债、宏观经济因素或需求减弱。尽管AI泡沫可能带来高昂的经济代价,但扎克伯格强调,如果构建AI的速度过慢,可能会错失AI在未来创造新产品、创新和价值方面的巨大潜力,而这对他来说是更大的风险。

🧠 **AI泡沫风险与机遇并存**: 马克·扎克伯格承认AI领域的快速发展和巨额投资可能形成泡沫,并存在市场崩溃的风险。他引用了铁路和互联网泡沫作为历史例证,指出这些泡沫的形成往往与过度负债、宏观经济因素或产品需求变化有关。然而,他认为,相比于错过AI这一划时代的技术变革,过度投资的风险是可以接受的。

🚀 **投资AI的战略考量**: 扎克伯格认为,构建AI基础设施的投资与过去的大型基建类似,确实存在形成泡沫的可能性。但他强调,如果因速度过慢而错失了AI可能在未来三到五年内实现的技术突破(如超级智能),那么其损失将远大于短期内因过度投资而产生的财务损失。他认为,AI将是历史上创造新产品、创新和价值最重要的技术。

💡 **Meta的AI雄心与投入**: Meta公司已承诺在2028年前向美国的数据中心和基础设施投入至少6000亿美元,以支持其AI发展目标。这笔资金将用于数据中心建设、国内业务运营以及新员工招聘。此外,Meta还成立了超级智能实验室,积极招募人才,旨在开发超越人类智能水平的AI。

⚖️ **权衡风险与回报**: 尽管承认过度投资可能导致“几百亿美元”的损失,扎克伯格认为,如果Meta在AI发展上行动迟缓,将面临更大的风险。他将此比作“在最重要技术上落后于人”的潜在后果。然而,他也指出,Meta的生存并非完全依赖于AI的成功,并提及像OpenAI和Anthropic这样的公司,其融资能力部分取决于自身的表现以及不可控的宏观经济因素。

Mark Zuckerberg has some similar thoughts. 

The Meta CEO acknowledged that the rapid development of and surging investments in AI stands to form a bubble, potentially outpacing practical productivity and returns and risking a market crash. But Zuckerberg insists that the risk of over-investment is preferable to the alternative: being late to what he sees as an era-defining technological transformation.

“There are compelling arguments for why AI could be an outlier,” Zuckerberg hedged in an appearance on the Access podcast. “And if the models keep on growing in capability year-over-year and demand keeps growing, then maybe there is no collapse.”

Then Zuckerberg joined the Altman camp, saying that all capital expenditure bubbles like the buildout of AI infrastructure, seen largely in the form of data centers, tend to end in similar ways. “But I do think there’s definitely a possibility, at least empirically, based on past large infrastructure buildouts and how they led to bubbles, that something like that would happen here,” Zuckerberg said.

Bubble echoes

Zuckerberg pointed to past bubbles, namely railroads and the dot-com bubble, as key examples of infrastructure buildouts leading to a stock-market collapse. In these instances, he claimed that bubbles occurred due to businesses taking on too much debt, macroeconomic factors, or product demand waning, leading to companies going under and leaving behind valuable assets. 

The Meta CEO’s comments echoed Altman’s, who has similarly cautioned that the AI boom is showing many signs of a bubble. 

“When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth,” Altman told The Verge, adding that AI is that kernel: transformative and real, but often surrounded by irrational exuberance. Altman has also warned that “the frenzy of cash chasing anything labeled ‘AI’” can lead to inflated valuations and risk for many. 

The consequences of these bubbles are costly. During the dot-com bubble, investors poured money into tech startups with unrealistic expectations, driven by hype and a frenzy for new internet-based companies. When the results fell short, the stocks involved in the dot-com bubble lost more than $5 trillion in total market cap.

An AI bubble stands to have similarly significant economic impacts. In 2025 alone, the largest U.S. tech companies, including Meta, have spent more than $155 billion on AI development. And, according to Statista, the current AI market value is approximately $244.2 billion.

But, for Zuckerberg, losing out on AI’s potential is a far greater risk than losing money in an AI bubble. The company recently committed at least $600 billion to U.S. data centers and infrastructure through 2028 to support its AI ambitions. According to Meta’s chief financial officer, this money will go towards all of the tech giant’s US data center buildouts and domestic business operations, including new hires. Meta also launched its superintelligence lab, recruiting talent aggressively with multi-million-dollar job offers, to develop AI that outperforms human intelligence.

“If we end up misspending a couple hundred billion dollars,  that’s going to be very unfortunate obviously. But I would say the risk is higher on the other side,” Zuckerberg said. “If you build too slowly, and superintelligence is possible in three years but you built it out were assuming it would be there in five years, then you’re out of position on what I think is going to be the most important technology that enables the most new products and innovation and value creation in history.”

While he sees the consequences of not being aggressive enough in AI investing outweighing overinvesting, Zuckerberg acknowledged that Meta’s survival isn’t dependent upon AI’s success.

For companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, he said “there’s obviously this open question of to what extent are they going to keep on raising money, and that’s dependent both to some degree on their performance and how AI does, but also all of these macroeconomic factors that are out of their control.”

Fortune Global Forum

returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business.

Apply for an invitation.

Fish AI Reader

Fish AI Reader

AI辅助创作,多种专业模板,深度分析,高质量内容生成。从观点提取到深度思考,FishAI为您提供全方位的创作支持。新版本引入自定义参数,让您的创作更加个性化和精准。

FishAI

FishAI

鱼阅,AI 时代的下一个智能信息助手,助你摆脱信息焦虑

联系邮箱 441953276@qq.com

相关标签

AI 人工智能 Mark Zuckerberg Meta 投资 泡沫 科技 AI bubble AI investment technology
相关文章