Fortune | FORTUNE 09月20日
美国社保基金面临挑战,未来退休规则或调整
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美国正面临如何为日益增长的老年人口提供照护和支持的严峻问题。据估计,社会保障退休基金可能在2032年底出现入不敷出的情况。为此,美国社会保障局局长正着手研究下一代退休人员的保障方案。在被问及是否会提高退休年龄时,他表示“一切都在考虑之列”,并指出未来的退休规则可能与现在不同。除了提高退休年龄,其他选项如调整社保福利的收入上限也在考虑范围之内。尽管面临挑战,但社保系统仍将继续运行,并且有足够的时间来解决问题。与此同时,人口老龄化和退休率上升在短期内有助于维持就业率稳定。

💰 **社保基金的财政压力与预期**:文章指出,美国与许多发达国家一样,正面临为不断增长的老年人口提供长期照护和支持的巨大财政压力。具体到社会保障退休基金,预计将在2032年底面临入不敷出的困境,这促使政府必须提前规划。社保局局长 Frank Bisignano 表示,所有可能的解决方案都在考虑之中,包括调整退休规则,暗示未来的退休人群可能面临与当前不同的政策。

📈 **人口结构变化与社保负担加剧**:人口结构的变化是社保基金面临挑战的关键因素。文章引用国会预算办公室(CBO)的估计,显示领取社保的人口数量将从2024年的3.42亿增长到2054年的3.83亿。此外,CBO预测,由于低生育率,2040年之后的人口增长将主要依赖移民,这将进一步加剧社保系统供需不平衡的局面,因为需要更多在职人员缴纳税款来支撑日益增长的退休人口。

⚖️ **潜在的改革选项与时间窗口**:为了应对社保基金的挑战,除了提高退休年龄,文章还提及了其他可能的改革措施,例如调整收入上限(目前为17.5万美元),超过此收入后社保福利将逐渐减少。社保局局长强调,目前团队并未过度担忧,因为距离基金可能出现问题的2032年还有足够的时间来寻求解决方案。白宫方面则未对此事做出回应,表明具体政策尚不明朗。

📉 **短期内退休潮对就业市场的意外影响**:文章还探讨了美国人口老龄化带来的一个短期积极影响:退休人数的增加在一定程度上缓解了劳动力市场的压力,有助于维持较低的失业率。随着第一批婴儿潮一代(1946年出生)步入80岁,以及后续世代也逐渐接近退休年龄,大量人口退出劳动力市场,使得劳动力供应的减少与需求之间的平衡得以维持,即使在新增就业岗位不多的情况下,失业率也保持在相对稳定的水平。

Like many developed nations, the U.S. is wrangling with a complex question: How to pay for the care and support of an aging population. Many of the answers to that question won’t be popular, but governments are aware of the need to address the issue before crisis hits.

In America, that timeline is set to seven years. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Social Security’s retirement trust funds will be insolvent by the end of 2032.

As such Trump’s Social Security Administration Commissioner, Frank Bisignano, needs to workout the landscape for the next generation of retirees.

When asked if plans to redress the issue may include raising the retirement age, Bisignano told Fox Business yesterday: “I think everything’s being considered, will be considered.” 

He added: “Remember, most people told you and I Social Security wasn’t going to be around, and it’s going to be around. And so the generations that are coming in will probably have a different set of rules than we had.” 

The number of people wrangling with the new reality of retirement is staggering. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the Social Security area population (the relevant demographic for estimating payroll taxes and benefits as individuals reach retirement age) will increase from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people by 2054.

And this equilibrium of individuals supported by state benefits versus workers to pay into the system to support them is not a use which the CBO believes will be rebalanced anytime soon. In its estimation due to low fertility rates, all population growth from 2040 onwards will be as a result of immigration.

Bisignano added that raising the retirement age—currently set at 65—isn’t the only option on the table, saying there is “a whole host of items out there than can be hugely beneficial to get to the answer.”

Another consideration is the earnings cap at which benefits are phased out. While Bisignano said this figure—currently $175,000—will continue to go up, he added: “It’s another thing to put in the equation to think about.”

The Social Security chief added his team isn’t pushing the panic button yet, saying: “It’s really about solving it. Eight years is a long time away.”

The White House did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment on when, or if, the Social Security eligibility age might increase.

Retirement rates keeping employment steady

An unexpected upside to America’s aging population is that a shrinking workforce is, in the short-term, helping keep the nation’s unemployment rate in check.

Despite adding a meagre 22,000 jobs last month—and seeing significant downwards revision to labor market data—the U.S. has maintained an employment rate of around 4.3% over the past few months.

While the margins which could tip the rate up or down are minimal, one factor helping maintain the equilibrium is the increased amount of people who are retiring and as such, are not searching for roles.

As David Doyle, Macquarie’s head of economics, told Fortune a couple of weeks ago: “There’s been a surge in retirements this year. The first baby boomers that were born in 1946, they’re now turning 80, and you cascade down from that—I believe the last baby boomer year was 1964—so even the youngest baby boomers are into their sixties now.

“You now have this huge generation that is gonna be [a] drag on labor force growth.”

Of course, that drag is also helping keep unemployment rates down for the time being because the supply of labor does not outweigh even the most meagre of demand.

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美国社会保障 社保基金 退休年龄 人口老龄化 美国经济 Social Security Retirement Age Aging Population US Economy
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