Fortune | FORTUNE 09月20日
CEO调查:不确定性阻碍美国投资意愿
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一项近期调查显示,不确定性已成为阻碍美国总统特朗普重振工业部门计划的主要障碍,因首席执行官们在进行美国投资时犹豫不决。在耶鲁管理学院组织的一次高管会议上,62%的受访者表示不计划增加在美国制造业和基础设施方面的投资。耶鲁管理学教授杰弗里·索南菲尔德指出,关税、移民限制和经济担忧侵蚀了他们进行新投资的信心。调查还显示,71%的受访者认为关税对他们的业务造成了损害,并且约四分之三的受访者认可以色列法院已裁定特朗普的全球关税是非法的。尽管特朗普政府已获得苹果和英伟达等大公司对美国生产的投资承诺,但整体投资意愿受挫。

📈 **投资意愿低迷**:一项由耶鲁管理学院组织的调查显示,高达62%的企业高管表示不计划增加在美国制造业和基础设施方面的投资。这表明,尽管政府有重振工业部门的计划,但首席执行官们因顾虑重重而选择按兵不动,对新的美国投资持谨慎态度。

📉 **关税与经济担忧**:71%的受访者认为关税对他们的业务造成了损害,并且近四分之三的受访者认可以色列法院已裁定特朗普的全球关税是非法的。耶鲁管理学教授杰弗里·索南菲尔德指出,关税、移民限制以及整体经济担忧共同侵蚀了高管们进行新投资的信心,成为主要的阻碍因素。

⚖️ **对美联储独立性的担忧**:在耶鲁的CEO民意调查中,80%的人表示特朗普对美联储的施压不符合美国的最佳长期利益,71%的人认为特朗普削弱了美联储的独立性。文章还提到了特朗普任命一位未辞去白宫经济顾问职务的官员担任美联储理事,以及他试图解雇美联储理事的举动,这些都加剧了对美联储独立性的担忧。

🏛️ **“国家资本主义”模式的疑虑**:CEO们对特朗普政府在芯片制造商出口中国收入分享、美国钢铁的“黄金股”以及对矿产生产商的持股等方面的“国家资本主义”做法表示担忧。Snap-on首席执行官尼克·平丘克表示,“政府不应该在行业中选择赢家或输家”,这反映了对政府干预市场和选择性支持企业的不满。

Uncertainty is proving to be a major obstacle to President Donald Trump’s plans to revive the industrial sector as CEOs balk at making U.S. investments, according to a recent survey.

During a closed-door gathering Wednesday of top executives that was organized by the Yale School of Management, attendees were asked if they planned to invest more in U.S. manufacturing and infrastructure—and 62% said no.

Yale management professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld told the Wall Street Journal that tariffs, immigration crackdown and economic worries have eroded their confidence about making new investments.

“They’re holding back doing anything,” he said. 

Other findings from the poll showed that 71% believe tariffs have been harmful to their businesses, and about three-fourths agree with courts that have ruled Trump’s global tariffs are illegal.

To be sure, the Trump administration has secured pledges from top companies like Apple and Nvidia to invest in U.S. production. Earlier this week, pharmaceutical companies vowed to pour money into the U.S. as well.

The White House is also looking at ways to leverage $550 billion pledged by Japan in its trade deal with the U.S. to boost the construction of factories and other infrastructure, according to the Journal.

“The Administration is working closely with business leaders to restore America as the most dynamic economy in the world, and trillions in historic investment commitments reflect how the Administration is implementing an aggressive pro-growth agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. “These policies ushered in historic job, wage, economic, and investment growth in President Trump’s first term — and they’re set to repeat the success in President Trump’s second term.”

In a separate quarterly survey from the Business Roundtable released on Thursday, 38% of CEOs expect their companies to increase capital spending over the next six months, up from 28% in the second quarter. The share who see a decrease in capex dipped to 11% from 13%.

But Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten suggested that view isn’t representative of manufacturers. And the capex subindex remains below where it was in the fourth quarter of 2024 as well as the first quarter of 2025.

“Though we are pleased to see some recovery in CEO plans for capex, there’s fragmentation among the various sectors, with trade-exposed industries like manufacturing facing headwinds,” he said in a statement accompanying the survey. “The President has secured some significant concessions in trade negotiations, and we urge our trading partners and the Administration to continue working together to remove harmful tariffs and non-tariff barriers.”

Among other results from Yale’s CEO poll, 80% said Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve wasn’t in the best long-term interests of the U.S., and 71% said Trump has weakened the Fed’s independence.

That’s as Trump has installed Stephen Miran as a Fed governor, who has taken the unprecedented step in not resigning from his post as White House economic adviser. Meanwhile, Trump continues to press his other unprecedented move to fire Lisa Cook from the Fed.

Discussion at the closed-door CEO gathering also focused heavily on “state capitalism,” according to the Journal, given the Trump administration’s deals with chipmakers to share revenue on exports to China, its “golden share” in U.S. Steel, its holdings of Intel stock, and its stake in mineral producer MP Materials, among some recent examples.

“The government should not choose winners or losers in sectors,” Snap-on CEO Nick Pinchuk told the Journal.

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美国投资 CEO调查 不确定性 关税 美联储 国家资本主义 US Investment CEO Survey Uncertainty Tariffs Federal Reserve State Capitalism
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