Fortune | FORTUNE 09月17日
甲骨文与OpenAI巨额合同引发市场担忧
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甲骨文公司(Oracle)近期公布的季度财报远超分析师预期,特别是与OpenAI签订的一份高达4550亿美元的巨额合同,较去年同期增长359%,直接推升了其股价大涨36%,并一度让CEO拉里·埃里森成为全球首富。此举得益于埃里森与英伟达CEO黄仁勋的良好关系,使甲骨文在AI基础设施领域获得了大量高端英伟达GPU资源。然而,分析师对此也发出警告,认为该公司高达4550亿美元的未履约收入(RPO)中,有3000亿美元来自OpenAI,这笔巨款远超OpenAI目前的120亿美元年收入,且未履约收入并非已兑现收入,客户存在延迟、重谈或取消合同的风险,这加剧了对AI泡沫的担忧。

📈 **巨额合同与股价飙升**:甲骨文公布了与OpenAI高达4550亿美元的巨额合同,较去年同期激增359%,这一远超预期的数字推动其股价创下历史新高,并使CEO一度成为全球首富,标志着公司在AI领域的强劲复苏。

🤝 **AI基础设施的关键布局**:甲骨文通过CEO埃里森与英伟达CEO黄仁勋的良好关系,成功 확보了大量高端Nvidia GPU资源,这不仅巩固了其在AI基础设施领域的地位,也为其承接OpenAI的庞大计算需求奠定了基础。

⚠️ **合同风险与AI泡沫担忧**:尽管合同金额巨大,但分析师指出,其中3000亿美元来自OpenAI,远超其当前营收,且未履约收入(RPO)并非已兑现的收入。客户可能延迟、重谈或取消合同,这加剧了市场对AI行业潜在泡沫以及投资回报不确定性的担忧。

💰 **OpenAI的资金压力与执行挑战**:OpenAI的巨额合同承诺与其目前的营收和资金能力存在巨大差距,分析师和行业专家对其能否履行合同以及所需巨额资金表示质疑,认为这可能导致OpenAI在未来几年内面临资金困境,并对甲骨文的数据中心建设能力提出疑问。

Oracle shocked analysts in its latest quarterly earnings call with revenue projections that cited $455 billion in contracts, up 359% from a year earlier. The optimistic forward-looking numbers caused the company’s stock to jump 36% on Wednesday, the company’s biggest one-day increase ever, and briefly made CEO Larry Ellison the richest man in the world.

Part of the reason Oracle was able to strike the deal with OpenAI at all is due to Ellison’s courting of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, which has allowed his company, despite previously trailing behind other cloud providers, to secure a large stockpile of top-of-the-line Nvidia GPUs and position itself as a significant player in the AI infrastructure space. The rally added to the 45% gain the company already notched up this year, and cemented Oracle’s AI-fueled comeback.

But while securing top-tier GPUs has bolstered Oracle’s infrastructure position, some analysts were quick to warn that the financial risk was heavily concentrated in a single, unproven customer. According to a Wall Street Journal report, the bulk of the company’s $455 billion remaining performance obligations, or RPO, will come from the $300 billion deal OpenAI. The AI firm announced it will tap Oracle’s computing infrastructure under the multi billion deal, one of the largest cloud contracts ever signed. It also far exceeds OpenAI’s current revenue, which recently hit $12 billion in annualized revenue, per The Information.

Because remaining performance obligations represent contracted but not yet delivered services, they are not guaranteed revenue; customers can delay, renegotiate, or even cancel portions of these commitments.

Cue fresh alarm bells over a potential AI bubble.

Fears that the AI sector might be in a bubble have intensified recently due to a combination of sky-high valuations, early signs of disappointing returns, and cautionary remarks from industry leaders. A recent study from MIT that found 95% of AI pilot programs fail to deliver meaningful returns, despite over $40 billion having been invested in generative AI projects, fueled fears that a gap was emerging between investment hype and real-world results. Days before the report was released, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman also said that he believed the AI sector might be experiencing a bubble in the private markets, expressing concern over the level of investor enthusiasm and the overvaluation of some startups.

Gary Marcus, an AI expert who has been warning of a potential bubble and problematic economics of AI since 2023, called the OpenAI-Oracle deal “peak bubble.”

“Oracle’s new market cap, near a trillion dollars, up nearly 50% this week, driven largely by this one apparently non-binding deal with a party that doesn’t have the money to pay for the services, seems more bonkers than most,” Marcus wrote in a Substack post.

He wasn’t the only one raising alarms about the deal’s credibility.

“This is a grotesque attempt by both Oracle and OpenAI to mislead investors and the markets at large with a contract that neither party can fulfill, and it virtually guarantees that OpenAI will run out of cash in the next few years,” Ed Zirtron, a technology writer and founder and CEO of EZPR who has also emerged as a vocal skeptic of the hype surrounding AI, said in a blog post. “OpenAI, while claiming it’ll make more revenue than NVIDIA by 2030, needs $250bn funding over the next four years to pay its $300bn compute contract with Oracle, who cannot physically build the data centers to service it in time.”

And it wasn’t just those who doubt the underlying potential of today’s AI models that questioned the economics of the deal.

“I’m not an AI bubble person, but it is very understandable for investors to be confused/concerned by the OpenAI-Oracle deal lol. OpenAI hasn’t even gotten the for-profit conversion approved and is promising people 300 billion dollars??” Miles Brundage, an AI researcher and former head of policy research at OpenAI, added in a post on X.

Investors also had questions. “How is this all going to work exactly? ORCL has to buy the chips, take on more debt, while OpenAI has $10B in revenue but will spend $60B/yr in CapEx for five years. What?” Ophir Gottlieb, CEO of Capital Market Laboratories, wrote on X .

OpenAI has made several other billion-dollar deals recently, including $10 billion to develop custom AI chips with Broadcom. The company is also still in the process of figuring out how exactly it’s going to restructure its corporate governance to allow its for-profit to raise more capital, although it’s made a significant step recently by getting lead investor Microsoft on board.

Taken together, OpenAI’s current revenue and capital commitments fall far short of what would be needed to fully fund the Oracle contract, with analysts estimating the company would need hundreds of billions in annual revenue to meet these obligations.

Representatives for OpenAI and Oracle did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fortune.

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Oracle OpenAI AI 云计算 Nvidia GPUs 合同 财务风险 AI泡沫 未履约收入
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