All Content from Business Insider 09月16日
旅行需求强劲反弹,经济状况或优于预期
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近期,联合航空首席执行官斯科特·柯比表示,旅行需求在七月份如同“开关被打开”般出现强劲反弹,并且九月份的预订量进一步走高。他认为,这一现象表明经济状况可能比一些滞后的统计数据所显示的更为乐观。尽管企业和休闲旅行需求均有显著提升,但航空业仍面临挑战,特别是经济舱座位面临激烈竞争,价格压力较大。然而,整体旅行需求的复苏,尤其是在高利润的头等舱和商务舱,为经济注入了积极信号。

✈️ 旅行需求显著回升:联合航空CEO斯科特·柯比指出,自七月起,旅行需求出现“如同开关被打开”般的强劲增长,并且进入九月后预订量持续走高,这显示出消费者和企业在旅行方面的意愿增强。

💡 经济复苏信号:柯比认为,强劲的旅行需求是经济状况好于预期的重要指标。他表示,经济可能比一些滞后的统计数据(如就业和通胀数据)所反映的更为稳健。旅行支出作为可支配支出,其复苏预示着更广泛的经济活力。

⚖️ 行业挑战与机遇并存:尽管整体需求旺盛,但航空业内部仍存在结构性挑战。高利润的头等舱和商务舱需求表现良好,但经济舱座位由于供应过剩,面临激烈的价格竞争,这给航空公司带来了盈利压力。部分航空公司如Spirit Airlines已开始调整策略以应对。

📊 航空业作为经济晴雨表:航空业的旅行支出具有一定的弹性,是经济状况的实时指示器。当经济不确定性增加时,人们会首先削减旅行开支,企业也会减少商务差旅。因此,旅行需求的快速恢复被视为经济健康度的积极信号。

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby.

Travel demand has soared back in the second half of the year, and that's good news for the economy at large, too, according to United Airlines' CEO.

Scott Kirby told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday that demand significantly improved at the beginning of July.

"It was like a light switch coming on," he added.

The summer travel period is key for airlines, while Labor Day and Thanksgiving are also significant revenue drivers.

"Bookings have been even stronger as we come into September," Kirby told CNBC.

It's a marked change from April, when airlines warned that travel demand could suffer due to President Donald Trump's tariff announcements.

In an earnings call that month, Delta Air Lines walked back hopes for record profits as its CEO said "growth has largely stalled" due to economic uncertainty created by tariffs.

The airline industry can serve as a bellwether for the economy because travel spending is discretionary. That means it's one of the first things people cut back on when they need to save money. Corporations also tend to send staff on fewer trips when the economy is suffering.

"On the demand side, I think we're a really good real-time indicator of what's going on in the economy," Kirby told CNBC.

"I actually think the economy is stronger than some of the backward-looking statistics would suggest," he added.

Such statistics might include jobs and inflation data, which are published monthly. Inflation reached 2.9% last month, its highest level since January.

Meanwhile, Kirby said that demand for both corporate and leisure travel has "definitely stepped up."

For the airline business, however, there are still challenges.

United's CEO said that demand was better in highly profitable premium cabins, while economy seats still face pressure from strong competition.

"There's still a lot of supply in the main cabin from a number of airlines, and when you have that, there's more pressure on pricing in the main cabin," Kirby told CNBC.

This over-capacity may help passengers by driving down airfares, but that creates challenges for airline profits.

Spirit Airlines last month filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy for the second time in less than a year. It's planning to downsize its fleet and focus on flights to its most profitable markets.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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联合航空 Scott Kirby 旅行需求 经济 航空业 United Airlines Travel Demand Economy Airline Industry
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