Fortune | FORTUNE 09月16日
美政府尝试解雇美联储官员,或影响央行独立性
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美国政府正试图解雇美联储(Fed)理事会成员,这一举动在美联储112年的历史上尚属首次,引发了对央行独立性的担忧。尽管联邦法官曾裁定解雇非法,但政府仍计划上诉至最高法院。此次尝试的背景是特朗普总统多次呼吁美联储降低利率,而独立性被认为是央行有效抑制通胀的关键。若美联储受政治干预,可能导致利率过低,加剧通胀并推高长期借贷成本。同时,另一位特朗普提名的理事会成员已获参议院确认,其兼任行政部门职务的做法也引发关注。

🇺🇸 美国政府试图解雇美联储理事会成员,这是美联储历史上前所未有的举动,引发了对央行独立性受到侵蚀的担忧。尽管联邦法官此前裁定解雇非法,但政府仍计划通过法律途径继续推进,甚至诉诸最高法院,显示其意图的坚决。

⚖️ 此类解雇尝试的核心在于对美联储理事“因故罢免”的法律解释。政府认为理事的过往行为(如涉嫌房贷欺诈)即使发生在任职前,也足以质疑其作为经济“负责任的管理者”的资格。然而,法院认为“因故”应限于在任期间的渎职,且未给予被指控者充分的申辩机会,这侵犯了其正当程序权利。

📈 美联储的独立性被广泛认为是其有效管理经济、控制通胀的关键。经济学家担心,若美联储屈从于白宫的压力,可能将利率维持在低于经济基本面支撑的水平,以满足对低借贷成本的需求,这可能导致通胀加速,并推高抵押贷款和汽车贷款等长期利率。

💼 另一位特朗普提名的理事会成员斯蒂芬·米兰(Stephen Miran)已获参议院确认,他同时担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席,并将继续保留该职务,这在数十年来尚属首次,也增加了行政部门对美联储影响的猜测。

🌟 被解雇的理事候选人(Cook)是首位担任美联储理事的非洲裔女性,拥有牛津大学等名校背景,其职业生涯曾涉足学术界。她否认了所有不当行为指控,并提供了文件证据以反驳政府的房贷欺诈说法。

The Trump administration is expected to quickly turn to the Supreme Court in a last-ditch bid to unseat Cook. The Fed’s next two-day meeting to consider its next interest rate move begins Tuesday morning. And Cook’s lawsuit seeking to permanently block her firing must still make its way through the courts.

The White House campaign to unseat Cook marks an unprecedented bid to reshape the Fed’s seven-member governing board, which was designed to be largely independent from day-to-day politics. No president has fired a sitting Fed governor in the agency’s 112-year history.

Separately, Senate Republicans on Monday confirmed Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee to an open spot on the Fed’s board. Barring any last-minute intervention from the Supreme Court, the Fed’s interest rate setting committee will meet Tuesday and Wednesday with all seven governors and the 12 regional bank presidents.

Twelve of those 19 officials will vote on changing the central bank’s short-term rate: All seven governors plus five regional presidents, who vote on a rotating basis.

Chair Jerome Powell signaled in a high-profile speech last month the Fed would likely cut its key rate at this meeting, from about 4.3% to 4.1%. Other borrowing costs, such as mortgage rates and car loans, have already declined in anticipation of the cut and could move lower.

Trump sought to fire Cook Aug. 25, but a federal judge ruled last week that the removal was illegal and reinstated her to the Fed’s board. Trump appointee Bill Pulte has accused Cook of mortgage fraud because she appeared to claim two properties as “primary residences” in July 2021, before she joined the board. Such claims can lead to a lower mortgage rate and smaller down payment than if one of them was declared as a rental property or second home. Cook has denied the charges.

In a 2-1 decision, the appeals court found that Cook’s due process rights were violated because the administration did not give her a formal opportunity to respond to the charges.

The attempt to fire Cook is seen by many legal scholars as a threat to erode the Fed’s longtime political independence. Economists prefer independent central banks because they can do unpopular things like lifting interest rates to combat inflation more easily than elected officials.

Many economists worry that if the Fed falls under the control of the White House, it will keep its key interest rate lower than justified by economic fundamentals to satisfy Trump’s demands for cheaper borrowing. That could accelerate inflation and could also push up longer-term interest rates, such as those on mortgages and car loans. Investors may demand a higher yield to own bonds to offset greater inflation in the future, lifting borrowing costs for the U.S. government and the entire economy.

Separately, Miran chairs the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers and said earlier this month he would take unpaid leave but otherwise keep his job while serving on the Fed’s board. It will be the first time in decades that an executive branch official has served at the Fed.

Miran has been appointed to finish a term that expires in January, but he could remain in the seat if no replacement is chosen.

Cook has denied any wrongdoing and has not been charged with a crime. According to documents obtained by The Associated Press, Cook did specify that her Atlanta condo would be a “vacation home,” according to a loan estimate she obtained in May 2021. And in a form seeking a security clearance, she described it as a “2nd home.” Both documents appear to undercut the administration’s claims of fraud.

Last week, U.S. District Court Judge Jia Cobb ruled that the administration had not satisfied a legal requirement that Fed governors can only be fired “for cause,” which she said was limited to misconduct while in office. Cook did not join the Fed’s board until 2022.

In their emergency appeal, Trump’s lawyers argued that even if the conduct occurred before her time as governor, her alleged action “indisputably calls into question Cook’s trustworthiness and whether she can be a responsible steward of the interest rates and economy.”

Trump has repeatedly attacked Powell and the other members of the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee for not cutting the short-term interest rate they control more quickly. Trump has said he thinks it should be as low as 1.3%, a level that no Fed official and few economists support.

Cook is the first Black woman to serve as a Fed governor. She was a Marshall Scholar and received degrees from Oxford University and Spelman College, and prior to joining the board she taught at Michigan State University and Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.

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美联储 央行独立性 利率政策 特朗普政府 法律挑战 Federal Reserve Central Bank Independence Interest Rate Policy Trump Administration Legal Challenge
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