New Yorker 09月16日
政治暴力与党派分歧:专家解读当前危险局势
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近期,政治人物遇袭事件频发,引发了对美国政治暴力加剧的担忧。约翰霍普金斯大学政治学教授莉莲娜·梅森指出,当前政治暴力的特点在于其高度组织化和党派化,这与1960年代的混乱暴力有所不同。她解释说,虽然部分袭击者可能动机复杂,并非典型的党派支持者,但政治领导人的言论和党派间的敌意可能引导这些不稳定个体走向暴力。梅森教授认为,当暴力与党派身份紧密相连,并被视为关乎“生存”的斗争时,其对民主的威胁可能比以往任何时期都更为严峻。

💥 当前政治暴力呈现高度党派化特征:与1960年代的无组织暴力不同,当代的政治暴力更多地源于民主党与共和党之间的敌意,这种党派间的 animosity 使得暴力行为更易被制度化,对民主构成更深层威胁。

🎯 暴力动机的复杂性与政治领导力的影响:部分政治暴力事件的动机可能并非纯粹的政治目标,攻击者可能受到个人因素或追求名声的影响。然而,政治领导人有能力通过言论引导这些“易燃易爆”的个体,将他们的注意力导向特定的政治目标,从而加剧暴力风险。

⚖️ 党派分歧加剧对民主的潜在威胁:当政治暴力与党派身份紧密绑定,并被视为关乎党派生存的斗争时,暴力可能内嵌于政治体系本身。这种极端化的党派对立,使得民主制度面临比混乱时期更严峻的挑战,因为其触及了选民在投票箱中对政治议程和生存问题的判断。

This past week, the right-wing political activist Charlie Kirk was assassinated at Utah Valley University. Kirk, a close ally of President Donald Trump’s, was thirty-one years old. Tyler Robinson, a twenty-two-year-old Utah resident, has been accused of the murder. It is the latest in a string of attacks on American political figures: the shooting of two Minnesota state lawmakers and their spouses in June, two attempts on the life of President Trump during last year’s Presidential campaign, and the January 6, 2021, storming of the Capitol, to name a few.

I recently spoke by phone with Lilliana Mason, a professor of political science at the Johns Hopkins S.N.F. Agora Institute and an expert on political violence. In 2022, she co-wrote, with Nathan P. Kalmoe, the book “Radical American Partisanship: Mapping Violent Hostility, Its Causes, and the Consequences for Democracy.” During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed what makes our current era potentially more dangerous than the late nineteen-sixties, the connection between partisanship and political violence, and how to tone down partisanship when your political opponents really are extremists.

When it comes to political violence, what feels different to you about our current era?

We have been collecting data on people’s attitudes about political violence in the United States since 2017. But there is some older data that we have from newspapers, and from the Pew Research Center, which actually shows relatively similar levels of approval for political violence to what we see in the Trump era. So I don’t think that there’s a punctuated point at which the era of political violence begins. We can say that there certainly was significant political violence in the nineteen-sixties. But the difference then was that it was not organized along partisan lines. And what we’re seeing today is organized along partisan lines.

What do you mean by “organized along partisan lines”?

I mean that it is coming out of an animosity between the Democrats and the Republicans. In the sixties, there was a lot of violence, but it wasn’t like the Democrats and Republicans were on two sides of that violence. It didn’t line up perfectly with politics, or at least not in terms of partisan politics. Back then, it could be kind of random. But when the parties are helping organize the animosity, the violence itself can become more institutionalized.

That’s interesting, but, in the current era, when we read about the people who commit political violence, they often don’t sound like typical partisans. They have weird and strange views, and sometimes crazy views. How do you synthesize that with what you just said?

So one way to think about it is that there is a kind of political violence in which a political figure is targeted to achieve political goals. I think that everyone would agree that that is political violence. A lot of what we’ve been seeing recently, even just over the last year, has been violence targeting a political figure for nonpolitical ends or for maybe dubiously political ends. And in fact, these attacks are almost more like school shooters, where it’s a disturbed young person who’s trying to get attention and wants to go down in history. It’s violence against a political figure, but it’s not entirely because they want to achieve a political goal. Are you attacking the person because they’re political, or are you attacking the person because they’re famous? And I think it’s really easy to confuse those two things. But I think that the goal of the attacker does matter.

Do people in your field think that the partisan, toxic atmosphere in the country could be motivating these attacks, even if the shooters themselves aren’t clear partisans attacking someone from the opposing party?

A lot of political violence is done by people who are going to be violent anyway. Some people are just sort of like a loaded weapon, and the question is, where will they aim? And that’s where political leadership has power. Political leadership can tell these extremely volatile people what an appropriate target is. And so they might have exploded in one direction if they weren’t paying attention to politics or if they didn’t have leaders telling them who to hate. But because of the political environment, they turn in that direction. So I think in a sense it’s not necessarily telling them to go be violent; it’s that these are usually unstable people already and it is about where their attention is being drawn.

I want to go back to 1968. The lack of the same level of partisanship, and the lack of leading Democrats and Republicans advocating violence in the same way they are now—even when those politicians were doing other terrible things, like pursuing the Vietnam War, that unsettled the atmosphere—makes me think that democracy was less threatened then. Is that your view?

Empirically, it is different, right? It is different because the type of violence that we’re seeing right now, or at the very least, the type of animosity that is motivating violence, is very much about who is a Democrat and who’s a Republican. I think that’s more dangerous than an era of chaotic political violence, because our parties structure everything. When we go into the voting booth, we think we’re voting for a political agenda, but we’re also voting for these questions many of us consider existential. Having violence embedded into that, there’s a potential for violence becoming embedded in our politics itself.

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政治暴力 党派分歧 美国政治 民主威胁 政治学 Political Violence Partisan Divides US Politics Threat to Democracy Political Science
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