Fortune | FORTUNE 09月16日
马拉维大选:经济困境与历史重演
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马拉维正面临一场关键的大选,民众在燃料短缺和生活成本危机中投票。本次选举的两大主要候选人是现任总统拉扎勒斯·查克维拉和前任总统彼得·穆塔里卡,他们曾在2019年备受争议的选举中对决,该选举后被法院宣布无效并重新举行。查克维拉在2020年的重选后上任。此次选举,选举委员会面临着确保公平公正的重任,而穆塔里卡选择前选举委员会主席作为竞选伙伴,引发争议。马拉维经济严重依赖农业,但受到气候变化和高通胀的严重打击,燃料短缺也加剧了民众的困境。选举将决定总统、议会和地方政府的组成,获胜者需获得过半数选票,可能需要第二轮投票。

🗳️ **历史的重演与争议**:本次选举是2019年争议选举的延续,当时前总统穆塔里卡以微弱优势获胜,但法院因欺诈指控宣布选举无效,并勒令重选。现任总统查克维拉在2020年的重选中获胜。穆塔里卡选择曾负责2019年大选的前选举委员会主席作为副总统候选人,引发了对选举公正性的担忧。

📉 **严峻的经济挑战**:马拉维经济严重依赖农业,但近年来遭受了气旋和干旱等一系列气候灾害的严重打击。通货膨胀率飙升,基本食品价格高昂,许多民众难以负担。此外,严重的燃料短缺使得日常生活举步维艰,可能影响选民的投票参与度。

⚖️ **选举制度与潜在的第二轮投票**:根据新选举法,总统候选人需要获得超过50%的选票才能获胜。分析人士认为,第一轮投票中很可能没有候选人能达到这一门槛,从而导致查克维拉和穆塔里卡之间再次展开第二轮较量,为选情增添更多不确定性。

👥 **多候选人竞争**:虽然查克维拉和穆塔里卡是主要竞争者,但此次总统大选共有17名候选人,其中包括曾担任总统的乔伊斯·班达,增加了选举的复杂性。

What to know as residents of the southern African country, grappling with fuel shortages and a cost-of-living crisis, cast their votes.

The last vote

This election features the same two main candidates that faced off in the fraudulent 2019 vote. Then-incumbent Peter Mutharika won that election against the closest challenger, Lazarus Chakwera, only for a court to invalidate Mutharika’s win and order a rerun following months of street protests. Chakwera won a new election held more than a year later in 2020.

It was only the second time in Africa that a court had ordered a presidential election to be re-held and the first time it resulted in the removal of the incumbent.

Chakwera is now the president and Mutharika his strongest challenger.

The Malawi Electoral Commission is under heavy scrutiny to ensure a free and fair election this time. Mutharika has stoked controversy by choosing the former head of the electoral commission — who was fiercely criticized for the failed 2019 vote — as his running mate this year.

The candidates

Chakwera is a 70-year-old former theology instructor and preacher who is seeking a second five-year term as an economic crisis grips Malawi, one of Africa’s poorer and least developed countries.

Mutharika is 85 years old and has a long history in Malawian politics, having served in the Cabinet during the time his older brother, Bingu wa Mutharika, was president from 2004-2012. Peter Mutharika then served as president from 2014-2020. He is now taking another shot at the leadership despite a court finding evidence of fraud in his 2019 victory, including correctional fluid used to change vote tally sheets.

There are 17 candidates in total standing for president, including Joyce Banda, who was Malawi’s leader from 2012-2014, between the Mutharika brothers. She was Bingu wa Mutharika’s vice president and finished his term after his death.

The big issues

Malawi’s agriculture-based economy is in deep trouble, partly because of a series of climate shocks like cyclones and drought. Inflation has risen from around 8% to 27% during Chakwera’s term. Everyday food items like the staple corn are unaffordable for many in the landlocked country of around 21 million people, wedged between Tanzania, Zambia and Mozambique.

A critical shortage of fuel has also meant that queues at gas stations, a part of life now, may be longer than the queues at ballot stations on election day.

How it works

The election will be held on one day and the results must be announced within a week of polls closing. Malawians will vote for president, the makeup of the 229-seat Parliament, known as the National Assembly, and for more than 500 local government councillors.

Malawi changed its electoral law after the 2020 election, and this vote will be decided by the 50%+1 format — meaning the winner needs to get more than 50% of the vote.

Analysts see a strong likelihood that no one will get a majority in the first round of voting, forcing a likely runoff and yet another vote pitting Chakwera and Mutharika against each other.

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相关标签

马拉维大选 Malawi Election 非洲政治 African Politics 经济危机 Economic Crisis 通货膨胀 Inflation 燃料短缺 Fuel Shortage 选举公正性 Electoral Integrity 拉扎勒斯·查克维拉 Lazarus Chakwera 彼得·穆塔里卡 Peter Mutharika
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