Fortune | FORTUNE 09月16日
美联储面临复杂决策:经济不确定性与政治压力交织
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本周的美联储会议面临多重不确定性,不仅在于其对利率的决策,还包括参会人员的构成。经济方面,就业增长放缓但通胀居高不下,使得美联储在平衡充分就业与物价稳定两大目标时面临挑战。尽管政策制定者倾向于通过降息来应对就业放缓,但持续的通胀压力可能限制降息幅度。与此同时,前所未有的政治压力,包括总统对美联储官员的批评和解雇尝试,也为本已复杂的局面增添了变数。这种多重因素的交织,预示着本次会议的决策过程可能充满分歧。

📈 **经济双重挑战**: 美国经济正面临就业增长放缓与通胀持续高企的双重困境。这使得美联储在履行其国会赋予的稳定物价和充分就业的双重使命时,面临艰难的权衡。一方面,就业市场疲软可能需要降息刺激;另一方面,高企的通胀又要求审慎对待货币政策的放松。

⚖️ **政策决策分歧**: 经济前景不明朗,叠加政治因素,导致美联储内部可能出现分歧。部分官员可能倾向于降息以支持就业,而另一些官员则可能因担忧通胀而反对或要求更慢的降息步伐。这种分歧可能体现在投票结果上,甚至出现罕见的双向异议。

🏛️ **政治干预的担忧**: 总统对美联储施加的空前政治压力,包括公开批评和试图解雇官员,不仅干扰了正常的政策制定,还可能损害美联储的独立性和公众信誉。尽管官员们表示不会被政治言论左右,但这种外部干扰无疑增加了决策的复杂性和敏感性。

In a sign of how unusual this week’s Federal Reserve meeting is, the decision it will make on interest rates — usually the main event — is just one of the key unknowns to be resolved when officials gather Tuesday and Wednesday.

For now, it’s not even clear who will be there. The meeting will likely include Lisa Cook, an embattled governor, unless an appeals court or the Supreme Court rules in favor of an effort by President Donald Trump to remove her from office. And it will probably include Stephen Miran, a top White House economic aide whom Trump has nominated to fill an empty seat on the Fed’s board. But those questions may not be resolved until late Monday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is mired in uncertainty. Hiring has slowed sharply, while inflation remains stubbornly high.

So a key question for the Fed is: Do they worry more about people who are out of work and struggling to find jobs, or do they focus more on the struggles many Americans face in keeping up with rising costs for groceries and other items? The Fed’s mandate from Congress requires it to seek both stable prices and full employment.

For now, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed policymakers have signaled the Fed is more concerned about weaker hiring, a key reason investors expect the central bank will reduce its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point on Wednesday to about 4.1%.

Still, stubbornly high inflation may force them to proceed slowly and limit how many reductions they make. The central bank will also release its quarterly economic projections Wednesday, and economists project they will show that policymakers expect one or two additional cuts this year, plus several more next year.

Ellen Meade, an economics professor at Duke University and former senior economist at the Fed, said it’s a stark contrast to the early pandemic, when it was clear the Fed had to rapidly reduce rates to boost the economy. And when inflation surged in 2021 and 2022, it was also a straightforward call for the Fed, which moved quickly to raise borrowing costs to combat higher prices.

But now, “it’s a tough time,” Meade said. “It would be a tough time, even if the politics and the whole thing weren’t going on the way they are, it would be a tough time. Some people would want to cut, some people would not want to cut.”

Amid all the economic uncertainty, Trump is applying unprecedented political pressure on the Fed, demanding sharply lower rates, seeking to fire Cook, and insulting Powell, whom he has called a “numbskull,” “fool,” and “moron.”

Loretta Mester, a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, said that Fed officials won’t let the criticisms sway their decisions on policy. Still, the attacks are unfortunate, she said, because they threaten to undermine the Fed’s credibility with the public.

“Added to their list of the difficulty of making policy because of how the economy is performing, they also have to contend with the fact that there may be some of the public that’s skeptical about how they’ve gone about making their decisions,” she said.

David Andolfatto, an economics professor at the University of Miami and former top economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said that presidents have pressured Fed chairs before, but never as personally or publicly.

“What’s unusual about this is the level of open disrespect and just childishness,” Andolfatto said. “I mean, this is just beyond the pale.”

There are typically 12 officials who vote on the Fed’s policies at each meeting — the seven members of the Fed’s board of governors, as well as five of the 12 regional bank presidents, who vote on a rotating basis.

If a court rules that Cook can be fired, or Miran isn’t approved in time, then just 11 officials will vote on Wednesday. Either way, there ought to be enough votes to approve a quarter-point cut, but there could be an unusual amount of division.

Miran, if he is on the board, and Governor Michelle Bowman may dissent in opposition to a quarter-point reduction in favor of a steeper half-point cut.

There could be additional dissenting votes in the other direction, potentially from regional bank presidents who might oppose any cuts at all. Beth Hammack, president of the Fed’s Cleveland branch, and Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, have both expressed concern that inflation has topped the Fed’s 2% target for more than four years and is still elevated. If either votes against a cut, it would be the first time there were dissents in both directions from a Fed decision since 2019.

“This degree of division is unusual, but the circumstances are unusual, too,” Andolfatto said. “This is a situation central banks really don’t like: The combination of inflationary pressure and labor market weakness.”

Hiring has slowed in recent months, with employers shedding 13,000 jobs in June and adding just 22,000 in August, the government reported earlier this month. And last week a preliminary report from the Labor Department showed that companies added far fewer jobs in the year ending in March than previously estimated.

At the same time, inflation picked up a bit last month and remains above the Fed’s 2% target. According to the consumer price index, core prices — excluding food and energy — rose 3.1% in August compared with a year earlier..

With inflation still elevated, the Fed may have to proceed slowly with any further cuts, which would likely further frustrate the Trump White House.

“When you get to turning points, people can reasonably disagree about when to go,” Meade said.

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美联储 联邦基金利率 通货膨胀 就业市场 货币政策 Federal Reserve Federal Funds Rate Inflation Labor Market Monetary Policy
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