Fortune | FORTUNE 09月16日
AI泡沫与机遇:昔日重现还是全新格局?
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OpenAI董事长Bret Taylor认为,AI领域正经历着技术泡沫,尽管这可能导致许多人损失金钱,但同时AI也将像互联网一样,深刻变革经济并创造巨大价值。他以互联网泡沫为例,指出尽管许多公司倒闭,但亚马逊、谷歌等巨头崛起,且失败的公司也为后来的创新铺平了道路。Taylor认为,AI领域也将出现类似的“大赢家”,即使部分公司破产,其基础设施建设(如光纤)仍可能被后来的成功者利用,预示着AI带来的经济机遇依然广阔。

💡 AI泡沫与经济变革并存:OpenAI董事长Bret Taylor和CEO Sam Altman均认为当前AI领域存在泡沫,大量投资可能导致部分人损失金钱。然而,他们也坚信AI将像互联网一样,对经济产生颠覆性影响,并创造巨大的长期价值。

🌐 历史经验的启示:Taylor将当前AI热潮与互联网泡沫进行类比。他指出,尽管互联网泡沫破裂导致许多公司倒闭(如Pets.com, Webvan),但也催生了亚马逊和谷歌等巨头,并为后来的公司(如Instacart, DoorDash)奠定了基础。这表明泡沫中也蕴藏着巨大的机遇和成功的潜力。

🚀 泡沫中的受益者:Taylor认为,即使在泡沫破裂后,仍会有“大赢家”出现。他以互联网时代的光纤公司为例,许多公司破产,但其铺设的光纤网络最终被其他公司利用,促进了数据传输速度的提升。这预示着AI领域的投入,即使在短期内看似失败,也可能为未来的经济发展留下宝贵的资产和基础。

OpenAI chairman Bret Taylor is not naive to the potentially mammoth consequences of a tech bubble, but he said the prospect isn’t without its benefits. The former Facebook CTO and current CEO of AI business platform Sierra shares the opinion of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman that we’re in an AI bubble—but that’s not entirely a bad thing.

“It is both true that AI will transform the economy, and I think it will, like the internet, create huge amounts of economic value in the future,” Taylor said in the most recent episode of The Verge’s “Decoder” podcast. “I think we’re also in a bubble, and a lot of people will lose a lot of money. I think both are absolutely true at the same time, and there’s a lot of historical precedent for both of those things being true at the same time.”

Altman echoed Taylor’s sentiments last month, warning of big winners and big losers from an AI hype cycle.

“Someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money,” Altman said during a dinner for journalists, The Verge reported. “We don’t know who. And a lot of people are going to make a phenomenal amount of money.”

Taylor and Altman join the chorus of industry giants and economists warning about how the astronomical rise of AI has led investors to overhype companies, inflating them beyond their actual worth—with significant financial consequences. Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk warned in July that the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 are more overvalued today than they were during the dotcom era 25 years ago. Alibaba’s chair Joseph Tsai and C3.ai CEO Tom Siebel have both warned in the last year that we’re entering an AI bubble. 

The fallout of the dotcom bubble burst in 2000 was weighty: In March, the NASDAQ rose to its peak of 5,048 units, only to plummet to 1,139.90 units in October, a 77% plummet. The downturn, by the time it ended in 2002, had wiped out about $5 trillion in market capitalizations.

Bubble beneficiaries

According to Taylor, it’s worth paying attention to the big winners of the dotcom era when drawing conclusions about the impact of a bubble burst and what it would mean for the tech industry.

“There’s a lot of parallels to the internet bubble,” he said.

Looking at the successful companies that emerged from the early dotcom era is evidence that just because scores of internet companies were overhyped doesn’t mean the hype wasn’t justified for others, according to Taylor. The dotcom bust had famous flops such as Pets.com, a pet-supplies retailer that went belly-up prioritizing rapid growth, and Webvan, a grocery-delivery company that filed for bankruptcy in July 2001—but it also produced Amazon and Google, which have growth to be some of the world’s largest companies, Taylor pointed out. Amazon’s share price has grown nearly 15,000% since October 2000, and Google, which was not a publicly traded company in 2000, has similarly grown, reaching a more than $2.9 trillion market cap

Moreover, even failed companies like Webvan made their mark on the tech work, Taylor said, paving the way for companies like Instacart and DoorDash to build upon the retail delivery companies of the turn of the century.

“You start to look and you say, ‘Actually, if you look at the GDP of the world, how much has actually been created or influenced by the existence of the internet?’ One could argue that all the people in 1999 were kind of right,” he said. “It was as impactful on pretty much every measure.”

Taylor indicated there will be winners of the AI boom, but it’s difficult to say what these wins will look like. He pointed to fiber companies, many of which went under as a result of the dotcom bust, but not before making their mark on improving the speed of data. Most famously, Global Crossing, which had a value of $55 billion in its heyday, went bankrupt in 2002 after failing to find customers to make it profitable. 

“Because of the amount of economic opportunity, you just end up with a ton of investors, and some companies will fail and some will succeed,” Taylor said. “If you look at the people who built out fiber in the early days of the internet, a lot of them went bankrupt, but that fiber ended up getting used, just by the next person or the private equity firm or whatever entity bought it.”

Taylor did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

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AI泡沫 技术泡沫 经济变革 互联网泡沫 投资机遇 Bret Taylor Sam Altman AI Bubble Tech Bubble Economic Transformation Dot-com Bubble Investment Opportunities
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