cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 09月12日
MoWE模型:数据驱动天气预测新范式
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本文提出了一种名为MoWE的混合专家模型,通过优化组合现有模型输出,实现数据驱动天气预测性能的提升。该模型采用基于视觉变换器的门控网络,动态学习在各个网格点加权多个专家模型的贡献,显著降低计算资源需求,提高预测准确性。

arXiv:2509.09052v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven weather models have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance, yet progress has plateaued in recent years. This paper introduces a Mixture of Experts (MoWE) approach as a novel paradigm to overcome these limitations, not by creating a new forecaster, but by optimally combining the outputs of existing models. The MoWE model is trained with significantly lower computational resources than the individual experts. Our model employs a Vision Transformer-based gating network that dynamically learns to weight the contributions of multiple "expert" models at each grid point, conditioned on forecast lead time. This approach creates a synthesized deterministic forecast that is more accurate than any individual component in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, achieving up to a 10% lower RMSE than the best-performing AI weather model on a 2-day forecast horizon, significantly outperforming individual experts as well as a simple average across experts. This work presents a computationally efficient and scalable strategy to push the state of the art in data-driven weather prediction by making the most out of leading high-quality forecast models.

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MoWE模型 数据驱动天气预测 混合专家模型 视觉变换器 预测准确性
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