根据美国能源信息署（EIA）的新数据，今年美国司机预计在可支配收入中花费的汽油比例将是有史以来最低的，低于过去十年的平均水平。EIA预测，2025年汽油消费占比将不到2%，而过去十年平均为2.4%，最低点为2005年（不包括2020年）。EIA指出，自2022年以来，汽油价格每年都在下降，而可支配收入从2022年到2024年复合年增长率约为4%。EIA在其9月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中预测，今年油价将继续显著下降。EIA预计今年普通汽油的平均零售价约为每加仑3.10美元，2026年为每加仑2.90美元，均低于2024年的每加仑3.30美元。据EIA预测，布伦特原油价格将从8月份的每桶68美元下降到2025年第四季度的平均每桶59美元，并在2026年初进一步下降到每桶50美元左右。国际能源署（IEA）表示，OPEC+成员国今年将增加产量，外部供应也将增长，导致2025年供应量可能增加270万桶/天，明年可能进一步增加210万桶/天。

🔹根据美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据，今年美国司机在可支配收入中花费的汽油比例将降至20年来的最低点，低于过去十年的平均水平，预计不到2%，而过去十年平均为2.4%，最低点为2005年（不包括2020年）。

🔹EIA指出，自2022年以来，汽油价格每年都在下降，而可支配收入从2022年到2024年复合年增长率约为4%。EIA在其9月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中预测，今年油价将继续显著下降。

🔹EIA预计今年普通汽油的平均零售价约为每加仑3.10美元，2026年为每加仑2.90美元，均低于2024年的每加仑3.30美元。

🔹国际能源署（IEA）表示，OPEC+成员国今年将增加产量，外部供应也将增长，导致2025年供应量可能增加270万桶/天，明年可能进一步增加210万桶/天。

🔹据EIA预测，布伦特原油价格将从8月份的每桶68美元下降到2025年第四季度的平均每桶59美元，并在2026年初进一步下降到每桶50美元左右。

U.S. drivers are expected to spend the smallest share of their disposable income on gasoline this year than in the past two decades, according to new data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The EIA projected that less than 2% of people's personal disposable income will be spent on gasoline in 2025, down from an average 2.4% over the previous decade and the lowest share since 2005, excluding 2020. To get to this percentage, the EIA said it has been comparing gasoline prices, which have declined every year since 2022, with disposable personal income, which it says has increased by a compound annual growth rate of 4% from 2022 through 2024. 

The EIA forecasts significant decreases in oil and gasoline prices this year, consistent with its previous forecasts, in its September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

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"The good news for consumers is that we are generally seeing lower prices at the pump, and we expect gasoline prices to keep trending lower through next year," EIA acting Administrator Steve Nalley said in a statement.

The EIA projected that the average retail price for regular-grade gasoline is expected to sit at about $3.10 per gallon this year and $2.90 per gallon in 2026. Both estimates are down from the $3.30 per gallon average in 2024.

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The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline on Thursday is $3.19, according to AAA. 

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A contributing factor is that oil prices, which account for more than half of what consumers pay at the pump, are expected to be down in the near term, according to EIA's STEO forecast, which shows Brent crude oil prices falling from $68 per barrel in August to an average of $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025. Those prices are expected to drop even further to around $50 per barrel in early 2026, according to EIA projections.

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The drop in oil prices is driven by the uptick in supply expected this year by OPEC+ members. They are slated to increase output further while supply from the outside grows as well, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday. As a result, supply could rise by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from 2.5 million bpd previously forecast. It could also rise a further 2.1 million bpd next year, according to the IEA. 

Reuters contributed to this report.