Fortune | FORTUNE 09月07日
德国经济面临挑战:工作时长与效率待提升
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德国经济正面临增长停滞的局面,过去五年经济增长乏力,引发了关于提升生产力的讨论。数据显示,德国的平均工作时长在欧盟国家中处于较低水平,劳动生产率也出现下降。人口老龄化和即将退休的大量劳动力加剧了对社会保障基金的担忧。为应对这些挑战,有观点提出增加工作时长、优化工作效率、鼓励延迟退休,甚至减少公共假期。同时,员工普遍感觉工作时间过长,信息过载导致“无限工作日”,病假天数也创下新高。如何在工作时长、效率和员工福祉之间找到平衡,成为德国乃至欧洲经济亟需解决的关键问题。

📉 **经济增长乏力与工作时长不足**: 德国经济在过去五年增长缓慢,政治领导人呼吁国民需要“更努力、更高效地工作”,并指出四天工作制和过度强调“工作与生活平衡”可能威胁国家繁荣。统计数据显示,德国的平均工作时长在欧盟国家中处于较低水平,与希腊、波兰、罗马尼亚和保加利亚等国相比,平均每周工作时间更少,甚至低于欧洲平均水平。

📈 **劳动生产率下降与人口结构挑战**: 除了工作时长短,德国的劳动生产率也面临挑战。数据显示,德国每小时劳动生产率在今年第二季度较去年同期有所下降,且自2009年以来基本持平。未来十年内,11%的劳动力将退休,这给社会保障体系带来了巨大压力。移民被认为是潜在的解决方案,但已成为一个极具争议性的话题。若无有效解决方案,德国的基建计划和国防开支承诺将难以实现。

💡 **应对策略与员工福祉困境**: 为解决劳动力短缺和生产力问题,有观点提出减少公共假期(如丹麦已实行),或通过税收优惠激励人们重返工作岗位。德国目前对每日工作时长有法律限制,有人提议取消此限制以增加工作灵活性。此外,鼓励退休人员继续工作并提供税收优惠也是一个选项。然而,欧洲普遍存在员工因职业倦怠和疲惫而提前退休的趋势,工会也更关注争取更多休息时间而非仅仅提高工资。微软的工作趋势指数报告指出,许多员工面临“无限工作日”,每两分钟就可能涉及会议、邮件或通知,每天接收大量信息,同时病假天数也在不断攀升,增加了企业和社会的负担。

In response, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Germans need to work harder to make the economy more productive, as it hasn’t grown much in the past five years.

“We must, in this country, work more again and, above all, more efficiently,” he said in May. “It is not with the four-day work week and ‘work-life balance’ that we will be able to maintain our prosperity!”

The OECD research is supported by 2024 Eurostat data, which also found that Germans punch in at the lower end of the scale compared to their EU neighbors. Europeans working the most hours are in Greece, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria, where the average workweek is around 39 hours. The Netherlands had the lowest average at just above 32 hours per week, followed by Austria at 33.9 hours and Germany at 33.9 hours.

Across Europe, the average number of hours worked by full-time employees in their main job was 36 hours in 2024, according to Eurostat. The U.K. and France track along that average, with both hitting about 36 hours.

German productivity

In addition to working fewer hours, each hour is less productive. German labor productivity per hour worked was 1.7% lower in the second quarter of this year compared to the first quarter of 2023, according to European Central Bank data. It’s also been essentially flat since 2009.

Many note that with falling productivity and 11% of the workforce set to retire in the next 10 years, there are real concerns about how Germany will fund people’s social security. Immigration could be a solution, as highlighted by The Guardian’s recent infographic on predicted population decline by the year 2100, but it has become an increasingly contentious issue in European countries. Without a solution, Germany cannot implement a planned €500 billion infrastructure improvement, and there is also the scheduled defense spending that many EU countries are committed to.

Some argue for the need to rescind a public holiday, as Denmark did in 2023; the current French Prime Minister, François Bayrou, is causing a stir by trying to remove two from the calendar year. Others favor using tax incentives to encourage people to enter the workforce. In Germany, there is currently a legal limit that prohibits employees from working more than eight hours per day.

Merz, for his part, would like to abolish this daily working limit while still maintaining the 40-hour workweek, allowing working days to become more flexible. Others want to encourage people of retirement age, 67 and above, to continue working and earn up to €2,000 per month, tax-exempt, thereby encouraging more people to stay working for longer.

Sick leave is increasing

Another issue across Europe, more generally, is that people are retiring earlier, citing burnout and general exhaustion, a trend affecting the entire working population. In fact, unions are focusing less on wage increases and more on gaining more time off from work.

Recent data from Microsoft’s Work Trend Index Special Report finds that many workers are suffering from an “infinite work day.” After analyzing “trillions” of data points across all its products, it appears that most workers are unable to disconnect completely, as they are involved in a meeting, email, or notification every two minutes, receiving 153 messages every working day, according to Morning Brew.

On top of that, workers are calling in sick more often. In 2023, statistics show that the average worker in Germany took sick leave for 15.1 days, the highest recorded figure to date. Its neighbor, France, is also suffering under the highest-ever levels of sick leave; Les Echos reports that for the first six months of 2024, the cost of French workers taking sick leave increased by 8.5% compared to 2023.

All of this suggests it might be an uphill battle to bring people back into the labor market. However, with an aging workforce and economic stagnation, the balance between work hours and productivity remains a critical issue; it has never been more important to determine the difference between who works the most, the best, or the most efficiently.

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德国经济 工作时长 劳动生产率 人口老龄化 经济挑战 German Economy Working Hours Labor Productivity Aging Population Economic Challenges
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