Fortune | FORTUNE 09月06日
美国就业市场降温,特朗普经济政策面临挑战
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美国就业市场在特朗普总统执政初期呈现疲软态势,近期新增就业人数远低于预期,失业率有所上升。工厂和建筑行业裁员,经济增长与特朗普承诺的繁荣景象存在差距。尽管特朗普呼吁民众耐心等待其经济政策见效,但民众对其经济领导力的支持度下降。文章分析了特朗普政府在就业、制造业、能源和通胀方面的政策及其对经济的影响,指出其经济主张与实际表现存在脱节,并探讨了通胀和可负担性等问题可能对未来政治格局产生的影响。

📉 **就业增长放缓,失业率上升:** 近期数据显示,美国就业市场增长势头减弱,8月份新增就业人数仅为22,000人,失业率升至4.3%。制造业和建筑业出现裁员,经济表现与特朗普总统承诺的强劲增长形成对比,显示出经济的“慵懒”迹象。

🏭 **制造业与建筑业承压,关税影响显现:** 自4月份以来,制造业已裁员42,000人,建筑业也减少了8,000个工作岗位。文章指出,特朗普政府推行的关税政策可能正在加剧这些行业的挑战,并对经济增长产生负面影响。

📈 **通胀抬头,经济承诺面临考验:** 文章提到,通胀率已从4月份的2.3%升至7月份的2.7%,电力成本也显著上涨。这与特朗普总统承诺的“第一天就结束通胀”以及“12个月内将电价减半”的说法相悖,使得其经济承诺面临严峻考验。

🗳️ **民众经济信心下滑,政治影响待观察:** 民众对特朗普经济领导力的支持度已从2020年初的56%降至今年7月的38%。尽管特朗普将经济问题归咎于外部因素,但文章认为,通胀和可负担性等核心经济议题对选民的重要性可能超过就业数据本身,其政治影响将在未来选举中显现。

The U.S. job market has gone from healthy to lethargic during President Donald Trump’s first seven months back in the White House, as hiring has collapsed and inflation has started to climb once again as his tariffs take hold.

Friday’s jobs report showed employers added a mere 22,000 jobs in August, as the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%. Factories and construction firms shed workers. Revisions showed the economy lost 13,000 jobs in June, the first monthly losses since December 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The new data exposed the widening gap between the booming economy Trump promised and the more anemic reality of what he’s managed to deliver so far. The White House prides itself on operating at a breakneck speed, but it’s now asking the American people for patience, with Trump saying better job numbers might be a year away.

“We’re going to win like you’ve never seen,” Trump said Friday. “Wait until these factories start to open up that are being built all over the country, you’re going to see things happen in this country that nobody expects.”

The plea for patience has done little to comfort Americans, as economic issues that had been a strength for Trump for a decade have evolved into a persistent weakness. Approval of Trump’s economic leadership hit 56% in early 2020 during his first term, but that figure was 38% in July of this year, according to polling by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

The situation has left Trump searching for others to blame, while Democrats say the problem begins and ends with him.

Trump maintained Friday that the economy would be adding jobs if Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had slashed benchmark interest rates, even though doing so to the degree that Trump wants could ignite higher inflation. Investors expect a rate cut by the Fed at its next meeting in September, although that’s partially because of weakening job numbers.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Trump’s tariffs and freewheeling policies were breaking the economy and the jobs report proved it.

“This is a blaring red light warning to the entire country that Donald Trump is squeezing the life out of our economy,” Schumer said.

By many measures, Trump has dug himself into a hole on the economy as its performance has yet to come anywhere close to his hype.

— Trump in 2024 suggested that deporting immigrants in the country illegally would protect “Black jobs.” But the Black unemployment rate has climbed to 7.5%, the highest since October 2021, as the Trump administration has engaged in aggressive crackdowns on immigration.

— At his April tariffs announcement, Trump said, “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country and you see it happening already.” Since April, manufacturers have cut 42,000 jobs and builders have downsized by 8,000.

— Trump said in his inaugural address that the “liquid gold” of oil would make the nation wealthy as he pivoted the economy to fossil fuels. But the logging and mining sectors — which includes oil and natural gas — have shed 12,000 jobs since January. While gasoline prices are lower, the Energy Information Administration in August estimated that crude oil production, the source of the wealth promised by Trump, would fall next year by an average of 100,000 barrels a day.

— At 2024 rallies, Trump promised to “end” inflation on “day one” and halve electricity prices within 12 months. Consumer prices have climbed from a 2.3% annual increase in April to 2.7% in July. Electricity costs are up 4.6% so far this year.

The Trump White House maintains that the economy is on the cusp of breakout growth, with its new import taxes poised to raise hundreds of billions of dollars annually if they can withstand court challenges.

At a Thursday night dinner with executives and founders from companies including Apple, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI and Meta, Trump said the facilities being built to develop artificial intelligence would deliver “jobs numbers like our country has never seen before” at some point “a year from now.”

But Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, noted that Trump’s promise that strong job growth is ahead contradicts his unsubstantiated claims that recent jobs data was faked to embarrass him. That accusation prompted him to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month after the massive downward revisions in the July jobs report.

Strain said it’s rational for the administration to say better times are coming, but doing so seems to undermine Trump’s allegations that the numbers are rigged.

“The president clearly stated that the data were not trustworthy and that the weakness in the data was the product of anti-Trump manipulation,” Strain said. “And if that’s true, what are we being patient about?”

The White House maintained that Friday’s jobs report was an outlier in an otherwise good economy.

Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said the Atlanta Federal Reserve is expecting annualized growth of 3% this quarter, which he said would be more consistent with monthly job gains of 100,000.

Hassett said inflation is low, income growth is “solid” and new investments in assets such as buildings and equipment will ultimately boost hiring.

But Daniel Hornung, who was deputy director of the National Economic Council in the Biden White House, said he didn’t see evidence of a coming rebound in the August jobs data.

“Pretty broad based weakening,” Hornung said. “The decline over three months in goods producing sectors like construction and manufacturing is particularly notable. There were already headwinds there and tariffs are likely exacerbating challenges.”

Stephen Moore, an economics fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation and supporter of the president, said the labor market is “definitely softening,” even as he echoed Trump’s claims that the jobs numbers are not reliable.

He said the economy was adjusting to the Trumpian shift of higher tariffs and immigration reductions that could lower the pool of available workers.

“The problem going forward is a shortage or workers, not a shortage of jobs,” Moore said. “In some ways, that’s a good problem to have.”

But political consultant and pollster Frank Luntz took the contrarian view that the jobs report won’t ultimately matter for the political fortunes of Trump and his movement because voters care more about inflation and affordability.

“That’s what the public is watching, that’s what the public cares about,” Luntz said. “Everyone who wants a job has a job, for the most part.”

From the perspective of elections, Trump still has roughly a year to demonstrate progress on improving affordability, Luntz said. Voters will generally lock in their opinions about the economy by Labor Day before the midterm elections next year.

In other words, Trump still has time.

“It’s still up for grabs,” he said. “The deciding point will come Labor Day of 2026.”

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美国就业市场 特朗普经济政策 通货膨胀 关税 经济增长 US Job Market Trump Economic Policy Inflation Tariffs Economic Growth
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