Fortune | FORTUNE 09月05日
特朗普警告若关税政策被推翻 将撤销贸易协定
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美国总统特朗普近日表示,如果其关税政策被法院推翻,他将考虑撤销与包括欧盟和韩国在内的贸易伙伴达成的临时贸易协定。特朗普认为,关税是促成这些协议的关键筹码,若失去关税支持,美国将面临巨大的经济损失。此前,美国法院裁定特朗普利用《国际紧急经济权力法》为关税辩护的做法越权。此举不仅可能影响美国的外交和经济政策,还可能导致美国企业就已缴税款申请巨额退款。专家对此持不同看法,认为其所谓的“协议”多为意向书,且缺乏法律约束力,过度夸大了潜在损失。

🚨 特朗普威胁撤销贸易协定:总统特朗普警告称,如果法院推翻其关税政策,他将可能撤销与欧盟、韩国等国的贸易协议。他认为关税是达成这些协议的关键筹码,失去关税将严重损害美国经济,并可能导致已达成的协议被“撤销”。

⚖️ 法院裁定越权与潜在影响:美国法院裁定特朗普利用《国际紧急经济权力法》为关税辩护的做法越权,此举可能削弱其通过关税来解决贸易和边境问题的能力。此外,若关税政策被推翻,美国企业可能寻求高达1500亿美元的税款退款。

🤔 专家质疑协议的法律效力:哥伦比亚大学商学院的布雷特·豪斯教授认为,特朗普所称的贸易“协议”并非具有法律约束力的正式协定,而是“临时的意向书”。他认为,过分夸大了撤销这些“协议”可能造成的损失,并指出这种不确定性反而会阻碍其他国家与美国达成更全面的贸易协定。

President Donald Trump has signalled plans to end tentative trade agreements should his tariff policy be struck down. 

In an Oval Office press conference on Wednesday, Trump warned a lack of tariffs would destroy leverage the administration had to strike deals with trade partners like South Korea and the European Union.

“Our country has a chance to be unbelievably rich again. It could also be unbelievably poor again. If we don’t win that case, our country is going to suffer so greatly, so greatly,” Trump said.

“We made a deal with the European Union where they’re paying us almost a trillion dollars,” he added. “And you know what? They’re happy. It’s done. These deals are all done, I guess we’d have to unwind them.”

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled on Friday that Trump overstepped his authority in invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to declare national emergencies to justify the tariffs. In February, Trump said he would impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada as a way to stop the passage of illegal drugs like fentanyl across the border and halt undocumented migrants from entering the country. He later announced another raft of levies as a means to incentivize domestic manufacturing. The ruling upheld a decision by a federal trade court in New York from May.

On Wednesday, Trump asked the Supreme Court to uphold his tariffs. According to a court filing, Solicitor General D. John Sauer asked the Supreme Court to make their decision on whether to review the case by Sept. 10, saying the federal circuit’s ruling “disrupted highly impactful sensitive ongoing diplomatic trade negotiations and cast pall of legal uncertainty over the President’s efforts to protect our country by preventing an unprecedented economic and foreign policy crisis.”

The striking down of Trump’s tariff policy would also mean U.S. businesses could seek a $150 billion refund through Customs and Border Protection on the taxes they’ve already paid.

The White House did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Will Trump really lose leverage in trade negotiations?

Trump’s indication he would dissolve his trade relationships in the case his tariffs were struck down is a hollow one because the agreements he’s made aren’t legally binding deals, according to Brett House, professor of professional practice at Columbia Business School. 

“These are truly nothing more than ad hoc letters of intent,” House told Fortune. “So to say that much would be lost is vastly overstating the quality of those very tentative, very cursory, and very superficial agreements.”

Trump’s argument about the U.S. losing ground in negotiations also undermines legitimate trade deals in place prior to the administration imposing a wave of import taxes, House said. He cited the 1994 entry into force of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was replaced by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2020. 

In April, Trump said that since the beginning of NAFTA, the U.S. lost 90,000 factories, reiterating the need for American reshoring. While the figure matched what was used in a 2020 report from the Economic Policy Institute, revised Census data used in that report found a net loss of 70,500 manufacturing facilities between 1997 to 2022, CBS News first reported. About a quarter of those factories had four or fewer workers.

“If anything, countries that were interested and willing to negotiate comprehensive, legally binding trade agreements within the U.S. now are less likely to do so because they can see the good word of the United States—with countries where agreements already exist—is cast aside capriciously,” House said.

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特朗普 关税 贸易协定 Trump Tariffs Trade Agreements
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