Fortune | FORTUNE 09月05日
市场关注就业数据,期待降息信号
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美国股市周四表现平稳,市场正密切关注周五即将发布的就业市场更新数据。投资者希望这些数据能为美联储降息铺平道路。尽管近期有多项就业相关报告显示招聘放缓和失业救济金申请增加,但也有经济数据表现超出预期。如果就业市场持续降温,美联储可能在下一次会议上考虑降息,这可能提振经济,但也可能推高通胀。此前,美联储因担忧通胀而维持利率不变。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson指出,年初强劲的就业增长势头已受到不确定性的影响,可能因素包括劳动力短缺、消费者犹豫以及AI的干扰。

📈 **就业市场信号不明朗,为降息预期增添变数**:近期公布的多项就业相关数据,包括雇主招聘人数近乎减半以及失业救济金申请增加,均指向就业市场可能放缓。然而,另一份关于信息、批发贸易和服务业的经济活动报告则表现好于预期,显示经济并非全线下行。这种复杂的数据组合使得市场在解读未来货币政策走向时,更加侧重于即将发布的劳工部综合就业报告。

📉 **美联储降息预期升温,经济刺激与通胀隐忧并存**:就业市场的降温迹象可能促使美联储在即将举行的会议上考虑降息,这是投资者所期待的。降息通常能为经济和就业市场注入活力,但同时也可能带来通胀上升的风险。此前,美联储一直将抑制通胀作为首要任务,因此就业数据的变化将是其决策的关键考量因素。

💼 **企业财报亮点与市场波动**:在股市方面,American Eagle Outfitters因超出预期的利润而股价大涨。Hewlett Packard Enterprise和T. Rowe Price也因良好的业绩报告和战略合作而股价上涨。然而,Salesforce尽管业绩超出预期,但分析师指出部分增长可能源于一次性因素,导致股价下跌。C3.ai则因亏损超预期而股价下滑,公司宣布更换CEO。

🌐 **全球市场情绪谨慎,亚洲与欧洲股市表现不一**:在全球范围内,欧洲和亚洲的股市表现不尽相同。上海和香港股市下跌,而东京股市则有所上涨。这种区域性的差异反映了不同经济体面临的不同挑战和机遇,整体市场情绪趋于谨慎,等待进一步的经济信号。

Wall Street is holding steady Thursday as the countdown ticks to an update on the U.S. job market coming Friday that could clear the way for the cuts to interest rates that investors love.

The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged in morning trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 52 points, or 0.1%, as of 10:10 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was flat.

Treasury yields were also easing in the bond market following the latest discouraging signals on the job market. One report suggested U.S. employers, excluding the government, nearly halved their hiring last month. Another said that more U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week in an indication of rising layoffs.

Neither number is flashing a recession, and a third report on the economy came in better than expected. Growth for businesses in the information, wholesale trade and other services industries accelerated by more last month than economists expected, according to a survey by the Institute for Supply Management.

But a slowdown in the job market could push the Federal Reserve to consider cutting its main interest rate for the first time this year at its next meeting in a couple weeks. Such cuts can give the economy and job market a kickstart, though they can also push inflation higher.

Until now, the Fed has kept rates on hold this year because it’s been more worried about inflation potentially worsening than about the job market.

“The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty,” according to Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. She said several things could be behind the slowdown, including ”labor shortages, skittish consumers, and AI disruptions.”

A more comprehensive report on the job market from the U.S. Labor Department will arrive on Friday, and it will likely carry much weight with the Fed. Ahead of it, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.19% from 4.22% late Wednesday.

Last month’s grim July jobs report, which included massive downward revisions for June and May, sent financial markets spiraling and prompted President Donald Trump to fire the head of the agency that compiles the monthly data.

On Wall Street, American Eagle Outfitters jumped 30.4% after the teen fashion retailer reported more than double the profit that analysts had expected. It benefited from a frenzy of media attention in late July over a provocative advertising campaign featuring actor Sydney Sweeney.

The ads — which featured the tagline “Sydney Sweeney has great jeans” — sparked a debate about race, Western beauty standards, and the backlash to “woke” American politics and culture.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise added 3.7% following its own better-than-expected profit report.

T. Rowe Price climbed 6.4% after announcing a deal where Goldman Sachs plans to buy up to $3.5 billion of its stock, or up to 3.5% of all its shares. They’re teaming up to offer access to some of the private markets, where Goldman Sachs is an expert, to the retirement savers and other investors that T. Rowe Price serves. Goldman Sachs added 0.8%.

On the losing side of Wall Street was Salesforce, which was one of the heaviest weights on the market even though it reported a better profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Analysts called the performance solid but suggested some of it may have come from one-time factors. Salesforce, which helps businesses manage their customers, fell 7.9%.

C3.ai fell 4.4% after reporting a larger loss for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Chairman Thomas Siebel called the results “completely unacceptable,” while announcing a new chief executive for the company, Stephen Ehikian. He was most recently acting administrator of the U.S. General Services Administration.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed across Europe and Asia.

Indexes dropped 1.3% in Shanghai and Hong Kong but jumped 1.5% in Tokyo.

___

AP Writers Teresa Cerojano and Matt Ott contributed.

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美股 就业市场 美联储 降息 通货膨胀 经济数据 企业财报 U.S. Stocks Job Market Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts Inflation Economic Data Corporate Earnings
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